SEGRO stock forecast
SEGRO's weighted price is 895.28p in October 2029. The investment turns on whether rent capture and development delivery beat vacancy, funding and property-yield pressure.
Where could SEGRO's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is 877.29p in October 2027. This implies a total return of -1% with dividends. The weighted price is 881.17p in October 2028. The return is approximately -0%. The final weighted price is 895.28p in October 2029. It implies a total return of +2%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 20 % | 676.64 (-22 %) | 564.16 (-31 %) | 474.68 (-37 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 887.44 (-0 %) | 877.18 (-1 %) | 872.54 (-2 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 1047.50 (+17 %) | 1210.14 (+35 %) | 1384.09 (+54 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 877.29 (-1 %) | 881.17 (-0 %) | 895.28 (+2 %) |
What has to go right for SEGRO's forecast?
The bear path falls to £515 million and then £488 million before reaching £474 million. It assumes weaker leasing, delayed projects and higher finance costs. Vacancy reached 5.5% in H1 2026, and only 58% of first-half completed space was leased. The bull path reaches £569 million, then £610 million and finally £651 million, requiring stronger occupancy and faster development leasing. Data-centre opportunities remain conditional on power, planning, construction and customer commitments.
How much cash does SEGRO really make?
Debt movements also need decomposition. Euro translation added £166 million to the 2025 net-debt movement without representing new cash borrowing. Operating cash flow was absorbed by development, acquisitions, dividends and financing costs, so net debt cannot be understood from one balance-sheet movement alone.
What does an investor pay for SEGRO today?
EPRA NTA means EPRA Net Tangible Assets. It estimates what each share represents after valuing SEGRO’s properties, subtracting debt and other obligations, and applying standard property-sector adjustments. It is like estimating the value of a house and investments after paying the mortgage. SEGRO reported EPRA NTA of 902p per share at 30 June 2026, while the share price was 913.20p. That small premium suggests investors value SEGRO’s future earning power above today’s appraised assets.
The UK 10-year government bond yield was 5.38% on 16 October 2026, giving investors a market return against which property must compete. Using 30 June 2026 balances, SEGRO had £5,919 million of net debt, which magnifies both gains and losses. The table brings these judgments together.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 913.20 |
| Market value (calculated) | 12,365.84 |
| Price to EPRA earnings (calculated) | 24.2x |
| Price above net tangible assets per share (calculated) | 1.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
What this means. Although the table says today, the share price is the closing price from October 16, so it is not a live October 17 price.