Prologis stock forecast
The weighted forecast puts Prologis at $89.36 in October 2027 and $97.16 in October 2029, with bear: 25%, base: 55% and bull: 20%. It hinges on rent capture, stable occupancy and development execution.
Where could Prologis's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $89.36 in October 2027, a 26% loss including dividends. It is $97.16 in October 2029, a 13% loss including dividends. Case probabilities are bear: 25%. Base: 55%. Bull: 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 71.86 (-40 %) | 67.09 (-40 %) | 63.06 (-40 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 91.50 (-24 %) | 96.51 (-17 %) | 96.74 (-13 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 105.35 (-14 %) | 124.60 (+5 %) | 140.96 (+22 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 89.36 (-26 %) | 94.77 (-18 %) | 97.16 (-13 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a price the shares are guaranteed to reach.
What has to go right or wrong for Prologis?
The bear case gives $4,650 million in both October 2027 and October 2028, then $4,700 million in October 2029. Weaker leasing, concessions, financing costs and transaction dilution absorb operating improvement. The bull case gives $5,100 million, then $5,550 million, and finally $6,050 million. It requires faster rent capture, improving occupancy, successful development and contracted data-center projects.
How much cash does Prologis really make?
The annual table’s row labelled AFFO presents Prologis’s Core FFO measure. Prologis reports AFFO separately: it removes noncash rent and deducts property improvements and turnover costs, while making other specified adjustments. In 2025, Core FFO was $5.81 per share against a dividend of $4.04. The displayed payout was 69.5%, but that does not mean the remaining 30.5% was free cash after every building obligation.
Consolidated operating cash flow was approximately $5,008 million in 2025. The AFFO reconciliation deducted $327.355 million of property improvements and $562.197 million of turnover costs. These costs prepare buildings for tenants and preserve their earning capacity. Development spending is different from maintenance, so deducting every capital dollar would also understate expansion.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 5,561,300 | 5,304,939 | 5,334,250 | 4,187,516 | 3,172,283 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure) | 5.81 | 5.56 | 5.61 | 5.16 | 4.15 |
| Dividends paid | 3,764,745 | 3,570,480 | 3,228,589 | 2,494,723 | 1,872,861 |
| AFFO payout ratio | 69.5% | 69.1% | 62.0% | 61.2% | 60.7% |
What this means. The table calls this adjusted funds from operations, but the notes say it is actually the company’s core funds from operations, and the payout uses common dividends per share while total dividends paid also includes preferred dividends.
What does an investor pay for Prologis today?
Today’s price assumes Prologis can turn a large property base into growing cash flow per share. The current AFFO multiple implies about $6.16 of AFFO per share, while the implied earnings yield is about 4.9%. A ten-year US government bond yielded 5.090%, which helps explain why investors care about both income and growth.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 126.94 |
| Market value (calculated) | 118,445.315 |
| Price to AFFO (calculated) | 20.6x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
What this means. The price-to-adjusted funds from operations figure uses core funds from operations instead, so it may not match the stated measure.