SBA stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: SBA's weighted forecast reaches $175.90 in October 2027, $183.62 in October 2028 and $194.21 in October 2029. It hinges on domestic carrier churn, Brazil's Oi-related losses, refinancing costs and the potential lease-up of Millicom build-to-suit sites.
Where could SBA's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast shows a small near-term loss followed by recovery. The October 2027 value is $175.90, a 2% negative total return including dividends. October 2028 reaches $183.62, a 5% gain. October 2029 reaches $194.21, a 14% gain.
The endpoint range is $140.28 to $260.52. Today's price is $184.75. The forecast assigns 30% to the bear case and 50% to the base case. The bull case receives 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 153.36 (-14 %) | 144.42 (-16 %) | 140.28 (-16 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 177.83 (-1 %) | 187.61 (+7 %) | 200.05 (+17 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 204.86 (+14 %) | 232.44 (+32 %) | 260.52 (+51 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 175.90 (-2 %) | 183.62 (+5 %) | 194.21 (+14 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for SBA?
The bear case requires carrier churn to exceed new leasing, Brazil's Oi losses to persist and refinancing to raise interest costs. Slower Millicom lease-up then leaves AFFO per share falling. The shares reach $153.36 in October 2027 and $140.28 in October 2029. The 30% probability reflects weak organic growth, 90.8% domestic revenue concentration among three carriers and 6.4x leverage.
The bull case requires churn to resolve faster, Brazil to stabilize, Millicom sites to attract colocations and refinancing to remain manageable. Buybacks and a higher multiple amplify the earnings recovery. The shares reach $204.86 in October 2027 and $260.52 in October 2029. The probability is 20% because several execution outcomes must align, and Millicom project returns remain unpublished.
How much cash does SBA really make?
AFFO per share rose from $10.74 in 2021 to $13.37 in 2024, then fell to $12.85 in 2025. Dividends paid increased to $479.0 million, lifting the payout ratio to 34.6%. The remaining AFFO still competes with acquisitions, construction, land purchases, debt repayment and buybacks.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 1,381,393 | 1,445,079 | 1,424,173 | 1,339,717 | 1,193,062 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure) | 12.85 | 13.37 | 13.08 | 12.25 | 10.74 |
| Dividends paid | 479,012 | 424,191 | 369,960 | 306,766 | 253,580 |
| AFFO payout ratio | 34.6% | 29.3% | 26.0% | 23.2% | 21.6% |
What does an investor pay for SBA today?
| Today (Oct 23, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 184.75 |
| Market value (calculated) | 19,599.78 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 13.5x |
| Price to AFFO (calculated) | 14.7x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.7% |
What this means. The price to funds from operations and price to adjusted funds from operations numbers show how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of the trust’s yearly profit measure, not the share price.