ResMed stock forecast
The weighted ResMed scenario is $249.58 in October 2027. It hinges on durable patient continuation and cash generation while ResMed defends share and resolves Astral.
Where could ResMed’s shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted price is $249.58 in October 2027, a 5% total return including dividends. It reaches $272.52 in October 2028, a 16% return. By October 2029, the weighted price is $286.46, a 23% return. The three-year range runs from $186.18 in the bear case to $454.58 in the bull case, against today’s $239.77.
The final scenario probabilities are 25% bear, 60% base and 15% bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 200.51 (-15 %) | 193.35 (-17 %) | 186.18 (-19 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 252.64 (+6 %) | 276.17 (+18 %) | 286.21 (+23 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 319.13 (+34 %) | 389.90 (+65 %) | 454.58 (+93 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 249.58 (+5 %) | 272.52 (+16 %) | 286.46 (+23 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a prediction that the share price will follow exactly.
What has to go right or wrong for ResMed?
The bear case lowers earnings to $1,619 million in the first window and $1,636 million in the second. It reaches $1,657 million in the third. Philips may regain share, Astral remains suspended, MatrixCare leaves the portfolio and GLP-1 treatment or provider capacity may slow starts and resupply. The bull case reaches $1,829 million, then $1,999 million and $2,178 million as home testing, virtual care, adherence and manufacturing efficiency exceed the base path.
How much cash does ResMed really make?
Free cash flow starts with cash from operations and subtracts purchases of property, plant and equipment. In FY2026, free cash flow exceeded net income, which supports the quality of reported earnings. It nevertheless fell slightly from FY2025 because capital spending increased and more cash moved into operating needs.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,805,829 | 1,751,588 | 1,401,260 | 693,299 | 351,147 |
| − Capital spending | 156,285 | 89,865 | 99,460 | 119,672 | 134,835 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,649,544 | 1,661,723 | 1,301,800 | 573,627 | 216,312 |
| − Stock pay | 104,348 | 91,661 | 80,184 | 71,142 | 65,257 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,545,196 | 1,570,062 | 1,221,616 | 502,485 | 151,055 |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves immediately.
What does an investor pay for ResMed today?
Free cash flow tests whether accounting profit becomes spendable cash. ResMed generated about US$1.6 billion of free cash flow in FY2026 after capital spending, and management can use it for research, acquisitions, debt repayment, dividends or buybacks. Enterprise value compares the operating business with EBITDA, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, but depreciation still reflects equipment that must be replaced. Book value has the same limitation because goodwill from acquisitions may not equal the value of patient relationships or software.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 239.77 |
| Market value (calculated) | 33,721,071.294 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 32,911,837.294 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 23.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.6% |
What this means. The whole business is valued lower than the stock market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.