Quanta stock forecast
Quanta's weighted price is $389.40 in October 2027 and $461.84 in October 2029. It hinges on backlog converting into profitable work without fixed-price overruns, delayed starts or weaker collections.
Where could Quanta's shares be by 2029?
Weighted price is $389.40 in October 2027, a 39% loss. It is $461.84 in October 2029, a 28% loss including dividends. The bear case carries 35% probability; the base case carries 50%. The bull case carries 15%.
The forecast points to a negative expected return at every date. In October 2027, the weighted price is $389.40, a 39% loss including dividends. It is $424.23 in October 2028, a 34% loss. By October 2029 it is $461.84, a 28% loss. The final-date range runs from $224.08 in the bear case to $885.13 in the bull case, against today’s $642.45.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35% | 259.16 (-60%) | 228.90 (-64%) | 224.08 (-65%) |
| Base | 50% | 432.61 (-33%) | 472.51 (-26%) | 501.27 (-22%) |
| Bull | 15% | 549.30 (-14%) | 719.04 (+12%) | 885.13 (+38%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 389.40 (-39%) | 424.23 (-34%) | 461.84 (-28%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of all three cases, so it is not a prediction that the share price will actually equal that number.
What has to go right or wrong for Quanta?
The bear row falls to $1,596 million in the second year before ending at $1,653 million. It reflects slower MSA conversion and fixed-price cost pressure. MSAs represented 41% of backlog, and customers were generally not committed to specific volumes. Fixed-price work represented 60.6% of 2025 revenue. The bull row reaches $2,862 million and then $3,360 million because grid, utility and data-center demand converts faster, crews remain productive and margins improve beyond guidance. Backlog was approximately $53.4 billion, with RPO of approximately $33.6 billion.
How much cash does Quanta really make?
Quanta’s own free-cash-flow measure was 1,672,732 because it counted proceeds from equipment sales. Deducting stock pay of 181,947 produces a stricter ownership-cost measure. Stock compensation is not a current cash outflow, but it transfers value from existing shareholders to employees.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,229,970 | 2,081,196 | 1,575,952 | 1,130,312 | 582,390 |
| − Capital spending | 609,154 | 604,078 | 434,803 | 428,782 | 386,719 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,620,816 | 1,477,118 | 1,141,149 | 701,530 | 195,671 |
| − Stock pay | 181,947 | 150,526 | 126,762 | 105,600 | 88,259 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,438,869 | 1,326,592 | 1,014,387 | 595,930 | 107,412 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.1% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 0.8% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it adds equipment-sale and insurance money and leaves out some intangible-asset purchases that our count includes.
What does an investor pay for Quanta today?
Dividing the share price by the trailing and forward P/Es implies about $8.73 of trailing earnings per share and $19.71 of expected earnings. That expected figure is about 2.26 times the trailing figure. If both used identical accounting, the comparison would suggest more than a doubling of earnings, but Quanta’s reported and adjusted profits show why that conclusion needs care.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 642.45 |
| Market value (calculated) | 96,588,112.833 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 102,186,565.833 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 73.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 32.6x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.5% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings number is much lower because it uses analysts’ expected profit, not profit the company has already earned.