Power stock forecast
Power's weighted price reaches C$90.64 by October 2029, an 8% gain including dividends. It hinges on whether operating earnings become durable per-share value and cash.
Where could Power's shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to limited weighted upside despite substantial two-sided risk. The weighted price is C$86.36 in October 2027, a 3% loss including dividends. It is C$88.27 in October 2028, a 2% gain. By October 2029, it reaches C$90.64, an 8% gain.
The endpoint range is much wider: C$52.11 in the bear case to C$134.00 in the bull case, against today’s C$91.75. The probabilities are 27% bear, 53% base and 20% bull, so continuity is most likely, but valuation compression remains material.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27% | 58.48 (-34%) | 55.31 (-34%) | 52.11 (-35%) |
| Base | 53% | 92.63 (+4%) | 93.13 (+7%) | 93.90 (+12%) |
| Bull | 20% | 107.40 (+20%) | 119.88 (+37%) | 134.00 (+56%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 86.36 (-3%) | 88.27 (+2%) | 90.64 (+8%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it can be below today’s price even though the base case is above it.
What has to go right or wrong for Power?
Book value starts from reported equity of C$25,110m at June 2026. The base reaches C$26,350m in October 2027, then C$27,580m in October 2028 and C$29,010m in October 2029. The roll-forward reflects earnings retained after distributions, using growth near Great-West’s 8%–10% target. The bear falls to C$23,010m first because a 10% decline in the C$22,344m stock portfolio is treated as a one-time equity shock. The bull reaches C$26,700m first and then C$30,100m, requiring 12% earnings growth and stronger execution. First-half operating earnings of C$1,879m and Milliman’s addition to Empower support the base and bull cases.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 26,350 (23,010 / 26,700) | 27,580 (23,210 / 28,300) | 29,010 (23,410 / 30,100) |
| Shares (millions) | 626 (630 / 622) | 622 (629 / 614) | 618 (629 / 606) |
| Dividends per share | 2.65 (2.52 / 2.75) | 2.85 (2.52 / 3.15) | 3.05 (2.52 / 3.55) |
| Price to book value | 2.20 (1.60 / 2.50) | 2.10 (1.50 / 2.60) | 2.00 (1.40 / 2.70) |
How much cash does Power really make?
In 2025, the combined parent entities generated C$1,791 million of operating inflows. Cash dividends paid on participating shares were C$1,541 million. Payments on non-participating and perpetual preferred shares added C$191 million, leaving about C$59 million before repurchases and investment activity.
What does an investor pay for Power today?
The trailing operating P/E is 16.1x. P/E means the price investors pay for each dollar of earnings. The forward multiple is 14.7x, implying about 9.5% earnings growth if both measures use the same definition. But reported and adjusted earnings differ: second-quarter reported EPS was C$1.10, while adjusted EPS was C$1.55. Investors must decide whether the adjustments describe durable performance.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 91.75 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 57,594.01 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 2.4x |
| P/E on operating earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.7x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.9% |
What this means. The next-twelve-month price-to-earnings number uses an analyst’s forecast of profit, so it is an estimate rather than money the company has already earned.