Palantir stock forecast
Palantir’s probability-weighted forecast reaches US$184.23 per share in October 2029. It hinges on cash-flow growth outrunning multiple compression and dilution.
Where could Palantir’s shares be by 2029?
At US$199.86 per share, Palantir’s trailing P/E is 170.8×. The probability-weighted forecast reaches US$184.23 per share in October 2029, an 8% loss from today, hinging on cash-flow growth outrunning multiple compression and dilution.
The scenario range runs from US$52.55 in the bear case to US$429.84 in the bull case. The base case is US$177.69 with 60% probability. Durable Bootcamp conversion, broader production adoption and reusable deployments support the upside; slower growth and rising cloud or delivery costs support the downside.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 77.04 (-61 %) | 63.58 (-68 %) | 52.55 (-74 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 199.36 (-0 %) | 197.43 (-1 %) | 177.69 (-11 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 297.59 (+49 %) | 367.14 (+84 %) | 429.84 (+115 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 183.51 (-8 %) | 189.42 (-5 %) | 184.23 (-8 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Palantir?
The base case grows cash flow to $4,760M in 2027 and then slows as the business scales. It reaches $7,140M in 2029. The reason is continued paid AIP adoption, strong margins and reusable deployments, supported by 84.7% gross margin in the latest quarter. The bear case falls to $2,550M first, as conversion and hosting costs disappoint, then recovers gradually. The bull case reaches $5,440M first and $10,290M by 2029 as Bootcamps convert and delivery becomes more repeatable. These are forecast assumptions, not guidance.
How much cash does Palantir really make?
Palantir’s adjusted free cash flow was $2,270.436 million because it adds back employer payroll taxes linked to stock compensation. A more conservative sensitivity subtracts stock pay, leaving $1,416.558 million. That is not a formal cash-flow line, but it asks how much cash might remain after considering the economic cost of replacing employee shares.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,134,473 | 1,153,865 | 712,183 | 223,737 | 333,851 |
| Capital spending | 33,882 | 12,634 | 15,114 | 40,027 | 12,627 |
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 2,100,591 | 1,141,231 | 697,069 | 183,710 | 321,224 |
| Stock-based pay | 684,033 | 691,638 | 475,903 | 564,798 | 778,215 |
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 1,416,558 | 449,593 | 221,166 | -381,088 | -456,991 |
| Real free cash flow per share (calculated) | 0.55 | 0.18 | 0.10 | -0.18 | -0.24 |
What does an investor pay today for Palantir?
The price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, says how many dollars investors pay for one dollar of annual accounting profit. A 170.8× P/E means paying roughly $171 for each recent dollar of earnings. Free-cash-flow yield measures the cash generated after capital spending against the price paid. At 0.5%, each $100 invested currently represents about fifty cents of annual free cash flow. That is especially demanding beside a 5.22% government-bond yield.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 199.86 |
| Market value (calculated) | 480,263,253 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 470,854,154 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 170.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.5% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.0% |