OpenText stock forecast
OpenText's weighted forecast is 9.53 CAD in October 2027 and 25.11 CAD in October 2029, with 25% bear, 55% base and 20% bull. It hinges on free cash flow after stock pay, cloud bookings converting into cRPO and recognized revenue, customer renewals, and debt reduction.
Where could OpenText's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is 9.53 CAD in October 2027, a 67% loss including dividends. It rises to 16.83 CAD in October 2028, still a 41% loss. By October 2029, it reaches 25.11 CAD, an 11% loss including dividends.
The range is unusually wide. The bear case reaches zero at every date, while the bull case reaches 63.32 CAD by October 2029. The bear case receives 25%, the base case 55%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 0.00 (-95 %) | 0.00 (-91 %) | 0.00 (-87 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 9.42 (-67 %) | 15.61 (-44 %) | 22.63 (-18 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 21.73 (-31 %) | 41.25 (+32 %) | 63.32 (+102 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 9.53 (-67 %) | 16.83 (-41 %) | 25.11 (-11 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for OpenText?
Free cash flow after stock pay is the central operating driver. OpenText generated 726.881 million dollars on this measure in FY2026, up from 582.556 million in FY2025, but the short history is not stable. Management guides FY2027 free cash flow to 625–725 million dollars, including its investment programme. The base case uses 590 million in October 2027, then 630 million and 670 million as cloud bookings convert gradually. The bear case falls to 510 million and then 440 million because support declines, renewals weaken and investment takes longer to repay. The bull case reaches 635 million first, then 730 million and 830 million, requiring stronger bookings conversion, savings and seller productivity. Cloud revenue grew 5.5%, cRPO 10% and enterprise cloud bookings 22.5%, but constant-currency revenue excluding divestitures fell 0.5% and cloud renewal was 94%.
How much cash does OpenText really make?
Operating cash flow is the cash left after customers pay and the company pays employees, suppliers and tax authorities. OpenText defines free cash flow by subtracting capital expenditure. In FY2026, US$1,006,817 thousand of operating cash flow less US$199,300 thousand of capital expenditure produced US$807,517 thousand of free cash flow.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow after stock pay | 590 (510 / 635) | 630 (440 / 730) | 670 (460 / 830) |
| Shares (millions) | 234 (239 / 230) | 227 (236 / 219) | 221 (234 / 211) |
| Dividends per share | 1.12 (1.12 / 1.12) | 1.16 (1.12 / 1.20) | 1.20 (0.84 / 1.28) |
| Enterprise value to free cash flow after stock pay | 10.50 (8.50 / 13.00) | 11.00 (7.50 / 15.00) | 11.50 (8.00 / 17.00) |
| Net debt | 4,646 (4,564 / 4,748) | 4,438 (4,374 / 4,588) | 4,187 (4,097 / 4,723) |
What does an investor pay for OpenText today?
A low forward P/E means investors pay little for forecast earnings, but forecasts can fail and accounting earnings are not the same as spendable cash. FY26 operating cash flow was US$1,006.8 million. After capital expenditure, free cash flow was US$807.5 million, against dividends of US$268.4 million. That coverage looks comfortable, but the remaining cash must also fund software investment and debt repayment.
| Today (Oct 12, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 33.82 |
| Market value (calculated) | 8,188,726.313 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 15,038,263.638 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 6.2x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 2.0x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.7% |