NEXT dividend: cash cover and yield
NEXT's latest dividend is £2.68 per share. Real free cash flow was £757.8 million after stock pay, while the £319m ordinary-dividend plan is smaller.
How much does NEXT pay per share?
Dividends rise from the latest £2.68 per share to £3.00 in the base case, then £3.30 and £3.60. The path is slower than the latest 15% increase because the low-base effect fades, but it is supported by the £319m ordinary-dividend plan and £752m of forecast surplus cash before distributions.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow per share | 635.74 | 557.24 | 543.22 | 238.33 | 326.22 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 240.35 | 212.01 | 202.86 | 190.38 | 266.43 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 110.23 | 296.22 | 144.85 | 183.24 | 6.73 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 319.63 | 76.07 | 221.57 | 68.45 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is lower because it uses a different cash measure that includes money lent to customers, employee share-trust cash flows, and land-sale proceeds.
Does NEXT cover its dividend with cash?
Employee share awards also have an economic cost. Deducting £43.1 million of stock pay produces real free cash flow of £757.8 million. This is an analytical measure, not a statutory subtotal, and the same cost must not be deducted twice.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 800.9 | 718.5 | 696.8 | 321.5 | 441.7 |
| − Dividends paid | 286.5 | 257.8 | 248.3 | 237.4 | 344.5 |
| − Share buybacks | 131.4 | 360.2 | 177.3 | 228.5 | 8.7 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 381.0 | 92.5 | 271.2 | 88.5 | |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 52.2% | 86.0% | 61.1% | 144.9% | 80.0% |
| Paid out, % of real free cash flow | 55.1% | 91.2% | 64.0% | 156.8% | 83.7% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is slightly different because it includes changes in the value of hedges on its bonds, while our calculation does not.
What could change NEXT's dividend?
The bear case holds dividends near £2.80 before a small recovery, as weaker trading and debt-funded buybacks restrict distribution growth. The bull case reaches £4.20 because international growth and warehouse efficiencies produce stronger earnings and cash.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 982 (845 / 1,031) | 1,055 (830 / 1,158) | 1,129 (842 / 1,288) |
| Shares (millions) | 114 (115 / 113) | 109 (112 / 107) | 105 (109 / 101) |
| Dividends per share | 3.00 (2.80 / 3.20) | 3.30 (2.80 / 3.70) | 3.60 (2.90 / 4.20) |
| Price to earnings | 17.00 (15.50 / 19.00) | 16.00 (14.00 / 19.50) | 15.00 (13.00 / 20.00) |
What is NEXT's dividend yield at today's price?
At 15,380.00p on 16 October 2026, one share costs £153.80. The market values the equity at £18,403.2m, while the trailing price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, is 19.56x. A P/E says how many pounds investors pay for each pound of annual earnings. The forward P/E is 17.46x because expected earnings are higher, so growth is already part of the purchase price.
The forward P/E of 17.46x implies an earnings yield of roughly 5.7%. That is profit attributed to the share, not cash paid to its owner. An illustrative 10% annual return could combine about 8% annual earnings-per-share growth with the 1.7% dividend yield, if the valuation multiple stayed unchanged.