Nucor dividend: payment, cash cover and yield
Nucor’s current quarterly rate is $0.56, implying an annual pace of $2.24. Recent payouts have run ahead of the cash Nucor’s operations generated, so free cash flow has not fully covered them.
How much does Nucor pay per share?
The dividend is the steadiest driver. The current quarterly rate is $0.56, implying an annual pace of $2.24. Base dividends rise to $2.28 in the second year and $2.32 in the final year. The bear case holds at $2.24, while the bull case reaches $2.40. The base path follows the record of annual increases, but the bear case allows a pause because 2025 free cash flow was negative $188M during heavy investment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 7.52 | 8.46 | 18.00 | 28.79 | 23.16 |
| Free cash flow per share | -0.81 | 3.38 | 19.56 | 30.87 | 15.71 |
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.22 | 2.19 | 2.06 | 2.03 | 1.65 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 3.03 | 9.30 | 6.21 | 10.50 | 11.17 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is higher because it does not subtract shares given to employees as pay; we subtract them because they reduce each existing shareholder's slice.
Does Nucor’s dividend come from its cash?
In the latest two years, Nucor paid shareholders more than free cash flow. That is possible because free cash flow is not a legal spending limit: the company can draw down cash, borrow, sell assets or use other financing. The choice still matters because shareholder returns then compete with the West Virginia mill, acquisitions, debt repayment and liquidity.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | -188 | 806 | 4,898 | 8,124 | 4,608.787 |
| − Dividends paid | 512 | 522 | 515 | 534 | 483.469 |
| − Share buybacks | 700 | 2,217 | 1,554 | 2,763 | 3,276.088 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 2,394 | 4,495 | 698.53 | ||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 1,649 | 2,285 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | not meaningful | 339.8% | 42.2% | 40.6% | 81.6% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is different because it counts restricted cash, while our calculation leaves that cash out.
What could change Nucor’s dividend?
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 7,300 (5,000 / 8,800) | 8,200 (4,200 / 10,000) | 8,500 (5,000 / 11,000) |
| Shares (millions) | 223 (226 / 221) | 220 (226 / 214) | 216 (226 / 208) |
| Dividends per share | 2.24 (2.24 / 2.24) | 2.28 (2.24 / 2.32) | 2.32 (2.24 / 2.40) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 9.50 (7.00 / 11.00) | 9.00 (6.50 / 11.50) | 9.00 (7.00 / 12.00) |
| Net debt | 2,200 (4,130 / 1,520) | -400 (4,790 / -1,690) | -3,330 (4,420 / -5,870) |