McCormick stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast is $29.32 in October 2027 and $51.02 in October 2029. It hinges on closing Unilever, delivering the synergies and converting them into cash per share.
Where could McCormick's shares be by October 2029?
The October 2027 weighted forecast implies a 35% loss including dividends. The October 2029 weighted forecast implies a 19% return. Bear probability is 28%; base probability is 52%. Bull probability is 20%. By October 2029, the cases span $22.76 in the bear case to $84.44 in the bull case.
The weighted price is $29.32 in October 2027, a 35% loss including dividends. It is $43.87 in October 2028, approximately flat including dividends. By October 2029, it reaches $51.02, a 19% return including dividends. The October 2029 range is wide: $22.76 in the bear case to $84.44 in the bull case, against today’s $48.12.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 38.38 (-16 %) | 23.37 (-43 %) | 22.76 (-41 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 23.58 (-47 %) | 45.78 (+4 %) | 53.38 (+24 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 31.58 (-30 %) | 67.60 (+49 %) | 84.44 (+89 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 29.32 (-35 %) | 43.87 (-0 %) | 51.02 (+19 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for McCormick?
The bear case gives $940 million, $1,800 million and $1,950 million. It assumes closing slips toward the end of 2027, margins remain weaker and interest expense stays high. The bull case gives $1,350 million, $2,600 million and $2,950 million because closing is timely, customer service holds and savings arrive faster. Current organic growth of 1.9%, with volume and mix down 0.3%, argues against making the bull case central.
How much cash does McCormick really make?
Deducting $46.2 million of stock compensation gives $694.2 million of “real free cash flow” under the stated convention. That deduction recognizes the economic cost of giving employees ownership, although it is not another cash payment in the cash-flow statement.
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2024 | Nov 2023 | Nov 2022 | Nov 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 962.2 | 921.9 | 1,237.3 | 651.5 | 828.3 |
| − Capital spending | 221.8 | 274.9 | 263.9 | 262.0 | 278.0 |
| = Free cash flow | 740.4 | 647.0 | 973.4 | 389.5 | 550.3 |
| − Stock pay | 46.2 | 47.4 | 63.4 | 60.3 | 66.6 |
| = Real free cash flow | 694.2 | 599.6 | 910.0 | 329.2 | 483.7 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 10.1% | 8.9% | 13.7% | 5.2% | 7.7% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because we subtract stock pay: although it uses no cash today, it gives employees part of the company.
What does an investor pay for McCormick today?
The 15.0× next-twelve-month P/E is therefore a more useful starting point, though its forecast earnings still need scrutiny. Free cash flow yield is more tangible than the Mexico gain, while the dividend yield only shows the distribution relative to the share price. The central question is how much cash remains after dividends, integration spending and debt repayment.
| Today (Oct 24, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 48.12 |
| Market value (calculated) | 12,947.4 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 17,634.5 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.0% |