ELC stock forecast
ELC's weighted forecast is $76.11 in October 2027. It hinges on turning recovery into durable consumer demand and cash.
Where could ELC's shares be in each forecast year?
The forecast’s weighted path remains below today’s price through the third forecast date. It is $76.11 in October 2027, a -27% return with dividends. It rises to $87.02 in October 2028, still a -15% return. By October 2029, it reaches $97.12, or -4% with dividends.
Today’s price is $105.50. The October 2029 outcomes span $27.25 to $202.59. The bear case has a 30% probability. The base case has a 55% probability. The bull case has a 15% probability.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 37.97 (-63 %) | 29.91 (-69 %) | 27.25 (-70 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 83.79 (-19 %) | 96.87 (-6 %) | 106.47 (+5 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 124.21 (+19 %) | 165.17 (+59 %) | 202.59 (+96 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 76.11 (-27 %) | 87.02 (-15 %) | 97.12 (-4 %) |
What this means. The Weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What could drive ELC's base, bear and bull cases?
The bear case carries 30% probability, the base case 55%. The bull case carries 15%. The base case requires earnings and valuation to recover. The bear case turns on weak China and travel-retail sell-through, discounting and stalled savings. The bull case needs launches and savings to support repeat demand.
How much cash does ELC really make?
Capital spending fell from $1,040 million in fiscal 2022 to $457 million in fiscal 2026. That helps free cash flow, but factories, counters and digital systems still need investment. Subtracting $310 million of stock-based compensation produces an analytical “real free cash flow” of $1,006 million, because shares issued to employees dilute existing owners even without using operating cash.
| Jun 2026 | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,773 | 1,272 | 2,360 | 1,731 | 3,040 |
| − Capital spending | 457 | 602 | 919 | 1,003 | 1,040 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,316 | 670 | 1,441 | 728 | 2,000 |
| − Stock pay | 310 | 304 | 325 | 267 | 331 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,006 | 366 | 1,116 | 461 | 1,669 |
| Free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.7% | 4.7% | 9.2% | 4.6% | 11.3% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash but gives them part of the company.
What does an investor pay for ELC today?
The trailing and forward P/E tell very different stories. P/E means the share price divided by earnings per share: trailing P/E uses the last twelve months, while forward P/E uses an estimate. Estée Lauder’s 215.3× trailing P/E reflects unusually weak recent profit, while its 26.8× forward P/E assumes a much stronger future. Management’s fiscal 2027 adjusted EPS guidance implies a different multiple, because the listed forward measure uses another period or adjustment policy.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 105.50 |
| Market value (calculated) | 38,225.05 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 215.3x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 26.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.6% |
What this means. The past-year price-to-earnings number is much higher than the next-year number because the company earned very little recently but analysts expect much more profit next year.