Kinross stock forecast
Kinross's weighted forecast reaches CAD39.26 in October 2029, a 16% gain. It hinges on mine recovery, cash generation and project execution.
Where could Kinross's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted price is CAD32.89 in October 2027, a 4% loss including dividends. It reaches CAD34.33 in October 2028, a 1% gain. By October 2029, it reaches CAD39.26, a 16% gain.
The final-date range is unusually broad: CAD15.03 in the bear case to CAD94.75 in the bull case, against today’s CAD34.46. The base case has the highest probability at 52%. The bear case carries 29%, while the bull case carries 19%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 29 % | 18.11 (-47 %) | 16.03 (-53 %) | 15.03 (-55 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 32.92 (-4 %) | 31.65 (-7 %) | 32.49 (-4 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 55.32 (+61 %) | 69.61 (+103 %) | 94.75 (+177 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 32.89 (-4 %) | 34.33 (+1 %) | 39.26 (+16 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving each case more or less influence based on its probability; it is not a guaranteed result.
What has to go right for Kinross, and what could go wrong?
The base case assumes EBITDA of US$4,810 million in October 2027 and US$4,494 million in October 2028. It eases to US$4,388 million in October 2029. This reflects production near revised guidance, supportive but moderating gold prices and rising costs. Kinross cut expected production to 1.84–1.86 million ounces for both years, while 2025’s margin expansion was driven heavily by the higher gold price.
The bear case assumes lower ounces, lower prices and higher costs. The bull case assumes operating recovery, stronger gold and Nevada projects contributing about 400,000 ounces annually during 2029–2031. Reserve additions replaced only about 57% of depletion, so the bull path requires execution as well as a favourable metal price.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 4,810 (3,026 / 6,270) | 4,494 (2,890 / 6,900) | 4,388 (2,856 / 8,280) |
| Shares (millions) | 1,161 (1,174 / 1,154) | 1,145 (1,167 / 1,133) | 1,132 (1,160 / 1,115) |
| Dividends per share | 0.16 (0.12 / 0.16) | 0.16 (0.12 / 0.20) | 0.16 (0.12 / 0.24) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 5.50 (4.50 / 6.50) | 5.80 (4.20 / 7.00) | 6.20 (4.00 / 7.50) |
| Net debt | -539 (-1,401 / -4,331) | 475 (-1,070 / -7,394) | 1,230 (-889 / -12,508) |
What this means. A negative net debt number means the company has more cash than borrowed money, so it has net cash.
How much cash does Kinross really make?
After capital spending, lease payments and interest, free cash flow was $2,474.1 million. After the additional stock-pay deduction, real free cash flow was $2,461.0 million. That is a major change from the negative figure in 2021.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,760.5 | 2,446.4 | 1,605.3 | 1,002.5 | 695.1 |
| − Capital spending | 1,194.2 | 1,075.5 | 1,098.3 | 764.2 | 821.7 |
| − Interest paid | 85.0 | 128.2 | 167.3 | 96.1 | 94.7 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,474.1 | 1,230.6 | 309.5 | 119.0 | -255.1 |
| − Stock pay | 13.1 | 9.0 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 10.8 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,461.0 | 1,221.6 | 302.8 | 109.7 | -265.9 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is different because it counts only 70% of Man Choh and leaves out interest and lease payments, while our count includes the full business and those cash payments.