Intuitive Surgical stock forecast
The weighted forecast points to $450.53 (+7%) in October 2027 and $527.22 (+25%) in October 2029. It hinges on whether procedures, recurring supply sales, and margins support the falling future P/E.
Where could Intuitive Surgical's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast points to $450.53 (+7%) in October 2027 and $527.22 (+25%) in October 2029 if procedures, recurring supply sales, and margins hold as the future P/E falls.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 339.06 (-19 %) | 320.89 (-24 %) | 308.50 (-27 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 476.80 (+13 %) | 520.68 (+24 %) | 540.96 (+29 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 552.05 (+31 %) | 706.96 (+68 %) | 820.94 (+95 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 450.53 (+7 %) | 498.00 (+19 %) | 527.22 (+25 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, so it is not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for Intuitive Surgical?
The bear case begins with the same revenue base but uses 8% growth, then 10%. It returns to 8% in the final year because U.S. procedure growth was about 12%, hospitals may defer elective cases, and trade-ins may replace capacity. Margins fall from 25.0% to 24.5%, so earnings run from $3,125 million to $3,638 million. The bull case uses 20% growth, then 19%, and 17%, with margins rising from 28.0% to 30.0%. Ion adoption, da Vinci 5 utilization, and manufacturing scale support that path. Earnings rise from $3,898 million to $5,814 million.
How much cash does Intuitive Surgical really make?
Stock compensation adds a shareholder cost that conventional free cash flow does not deduct. Subtracting $788.2 million of stock pay leaves “real free cash flow” of $1,702.5 million. That measure asks how much cash remains after recognizing the ownership transferred to employees.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,030.5 | 2,415.0 | 1,813.8 | 1,490.8 | 2,089.4 |
| − Capital spending | 539.8 | 1,111.2 | 1,064.2 | 532.4 | 339.5 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,490.7 | 1,303.8 | 749.6 | 958.4 | 1,749.9 |
| − Stock pay | 788.2 | 676.8 | 592.8 | 513.2 | 449.2 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,702.5 | 627.0 | 156.8 | 445.2 | 1,300.7 |
What this means. The working-capital amount is already included in cash from operations, so do not subtract it again when calculating free cash flow.
What does an investor pay for Intuitive Surgical today?
The 48.1x trailing P/E means investors pay $48.10 for each dollar of recent earnings. EBITDA removes depreciation, interest, and taxes, so it can make a business with expensive equipment look more cash-generative than it is. Replacing or expanding those robots still requires cash. Free cash flow makes that test more directly by subtracting capital spending.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 420.24 |
| Market value (calculated) | 148,461.6 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 143,245.4 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 48.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.1% |
What this means. The share price is the closing price from October 14, even though the table is dated October 15.