Medtronic stock forecast
Medtronic's weighted price is 103.43 in October 2029, after 85.81 in October 2027 and 94.06 in October 2028. It hinges on product adoption becoming durable cash growth.
Where could Medtronic's shares be by 2029?
The October 2027 weighted price is 85.81, a 6% loss including dividends. It reaches 94.06 in October 2028, a 6% gain. By October 2029, it reaches 103.43, a 19% gain.
The 2029 outcomes range from 62.67 to 160.14 per share. Today’s price is 94.23. The bear case has a 22% probability, while the base case carries 58%. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 22 % | 68.07 (-25 %) | 65.76 (-24 %) | 62.67 (-24 %) |
| Base | 58 % | 86.70 (-5 %) | 92.79 (+5 %) | 99.34 (+15 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 102.76 (+12 %) | 128.87 (+43 %) | 160.14 (+80 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 85.81 (-6 %) | 94.06 (+6 %) | 103.43 (+19 %) |
What drives Medtronic's bear, base and bull cases?
The next results must show which overhead disappears after MiniMed and which costs remain. By FY2027 end, Hugo’s cumulative procedure target and repeat instrument sales will test whether placements have become a business. FY2027 also must deliver 50 basis points of margin expansion and better cash conversion. Restructuring costs continue through FY2029.
How much cash does Medtronic really make?
Stock compensation is another economic cost. Deducting $457 million of stock pay produces analytical “real free cash flow” of $4,969 million. Its revenue margin was 13.7%, compared with 17.7% in FY2022. The business is cash-generative, but its conversion must improve before rising dividends look fully secure.
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 7,330 | 7,044 | 6,787 | 6,039 | 7,346 |
| − Capital spending | 1,904 | 1,859 | 1,587 | 1,459 | 1,368 |
| = Free cash flow | 5,426 | 5,185 | 5,200 | 4,580 | 5,978 |
| − Stock pay | 457 | 429 | 393 | 355 | 359 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,969 | 4,756 | 4,807 | 4,225 | 5,619 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 13.7% | 14.2% | 14.9% | 13.5% | 17.7% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares uses no cash today but gives away part of the company.
What does Medtronic stock cost today?
Underlying revenue growth was 5.8%, within 8.4% reported growth. Operating margin held at 17.8%. Medtronic’s own real free cash flow fell to 13.7% of revenue. Net debt reached $18,741 million. Diluted EPS was $3.73 in FY2026. The shares trade at $94.23. Next-12-month P/E is 14.7x, with a 3.1% dividend yield. The forward earnings measure includes Diabetes through year-end.
| Today (Oct 15, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 94.23 |
| Market value (calculated) | 120,536.18 |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.7x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.1% |
What this means. The enterprise value and related measures still include MiniMed even though the company split it off in October, so they may not describe the business investors own today.