D.R. Horton stock forecast
D.R. Horton’s weighted scenario reaches $212.12 by October 2029, with 30% bear, 55% base and 15% bull probabilities. It hinges on margins recovering, inventory turning faster and cash supporting the capital plan.
Where could D.R. Horton’s shares go?
The forecast points to limited near-term upside but a substantial possible gain by October 2029. The weighted price is $129.76 in October 2027, a 4% loss with dividends. It rises to $161.63 in October 2028, a 21% return. By October 2029, it reaches $212.12, a 59% return. The bear case ends at $79.04 in 2029. The bull case ends at $426.33. Today’s price is $136.84.
The bear case has 30% probability. The base case has 55%, and the bull case 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 79.67 (-41 %) | 64.40 (-51 %) | 79.04 (-39 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 135.91 (+1 %) | 174.44 (+30 %) | 226.29 (+70 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 207.43 (+53 %) | 309.09 (+129 %) | 426.33 (+217 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 129.76 (-4 %) | 161.63 (+21 %) | 212.12 (+59 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is a probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right for D.R. Horton, and what could go wrong?
Normal operating profit rises in the base case from $4,200M in October 2027 to $4,700M in October 2028. It reaches $5,300M in 2029. The bear path falls to $3,400M and then $3,000M. It recovers to $3,200M by 2029. The bull path starts at $5,000M and reaches $6,100M. It reaches $6,900M in 2029. The June quarter posted a 12.5% operating margin, while home-sales gross margin was 20.7%. Operating income averaged $5,870.2M across 2021–25 but fell to $4,424.2M in 2025. Communities rose 9% while orders stayed broadly flat. That implies about 8% lower orders per community.
How much cash does D.R. Horton really make?
The conventional property-and-equipment figure was $137.4 million, but that is not the full investment needed to keep a homebuilder supplied. Deducting stated stock compensation of $131.0 million from operating cash gives $3,116.7 million before capital expenditure and other adjustments. A specialist therefore tests cash over several years, including replacement land spending and inventory write-offs.
What does an investor pay for D.R. Horton today?
At $136.84 a share on October 19, 2026, D.R. Horton’s valuation depends on how much of its recent profit can last. The market value of all its shares is US$38,274.3 million, while enterprise value is US$41,750.5 million. Market value belongs to shareholders; enterprise value estimates the cost of owning the operating business by adding debt and subtracting cash. The difference is US$3,476.2 million.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 136.84 |
| Market value (calculated) | 38,274.3 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 41,750.5 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.1x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.6x |
What this means. Enterprise value is not fully apples-to-apples because it includes the finance arm in the company’s market value but leaves that arm’s cash and debt out.