Quest Diagnostics stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted scenario is $251.75 in October 2027. It hinges on whether PAMA’s 2027 impact is offset by productivity.
Where could Quest Diagnostics' shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $251.75 in October 2027, a +5% return including dividends. It is $289.52 in October 2029, a +23% return including dividends. Bear has 25% probability. Base has 55%, and bull has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 197.55 (-17 %) | 203.84 (-13 %) | 209.77 (-10 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 257.63 (+7 %) | 278.40 (+17 %) | 297.44 (+27 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 303.34 (+26 %) | 334.28 (+40 %) | 367.40 (+56 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 251.75 (+5 %) | 270.94 (+14 %) | 289.52 (+23 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a guaranteed price.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Quest Diagnostics?
The bear case requires PAMA cuts, wage pressure, Nova spending, and weaker hospital comparisons to overwhelm productivity savings. Corewell and Fresenius must also leave a difficult comparison base, while lower-value orders keep revenue per requisition subdued. The price falls to about $198 by October 2027 and $210 by October 2029. Its probability is 25%, because these risks are credible but recent organic growth makes a sustained earnings setback less likely.
The bull case requires organic volume to remain strong after those relationships are lapped. Denser orders, consumer testing, specialty-test coverage, hospital execution, and Nova benefits must lift both revenue quality and margins. The price reaches about $303 first and $367 by the last date. Its probability is 20%, because several execution and reimbursement outcomes must succeed together.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 1,459 (1,244 / 1,528) | 1,568 (1,316 / 1,684) | 1,685 (1,381 / 1,844) |
| Shares (millions) | 109 (110 / 108) | 109 (110 / 107) | 108 (111 / 105) |
| Dividends per share | 3.50 (3.44 / 3.53) | 3.76 (3.44 / 3.85) | 4.05 (3.44 / 4.20) |
| Price to earnings | 19.30 (17.50 / 21.50) | 19.30 (17.10 / 21.20) | 19.10 (16.80 / 21.00) |
How much cash does Quest Diagnostics really make?
Operating cash comfortably exceeded reported profit in 2025. After capital spending on equipment and facilities, free cash flow remained substantial. Subtracting stock compensation gives a stricter analytical measure, because stock pay transfers value even though it does not require an immediate cash payment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,886 | 1,334 | 1,272 | 1,718 | 2,233 |
| − Capital spending | 527 | 425 | 408 | 404 | 403 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,359 | 909 | 864 | 1,314 | 1,830 |
| − Stock pay | 88 | 88 | 77 | 77 | 79 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,271 | 821 | 787 | 1,237 | 1,751 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 11.5% | 8.3% | 8.5% | 12.5% | 16.2% |
What does an investor pay for Quest Diagnostics today?
One share is a small claim on the profit left after Quest pays its bills, taxes and interest. Its trailing P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, is 24.3 times; its forward P/E is 20.3 times because expected earnings are higher. The lower figure is not free growth: investors are already paying for it.