Compass stock forecast
Compass's weighted value is $31.72 in October 2027, including dividends. It hinges on profitable contract launches, retention, margins and free cash flow that helps reduce absolute debt.
Where could Compass's shares go?
The weighted value is $31.72 at the first date, implying a 5% total return. It becomes $32.91 at the second date, implying 11%. At the last date, it reaches $34.43, implying 18%. The base case carries 55% probability, while the bear case carries 25%. The bull case carries 20%.
By the last date, the forecast spans $23.84 in the bear case to $46.77 in the bull case, against today’s $30.92. The range is wide because both earnings and the P/E multiple can move together.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 27.93 (-8%) | 25.88 (-12%) | 23.84 (-16%) |
| Base | 55% | 31.91 (+5%) | 32.85 (+11%) | 34.75 (+19%) |
| Bull | 20% | 35.94 (+18%) | 41.86 (+40%) | 46.77 (+59%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 31.72 (+5%) | 32.91 (+11%) | 34.43 (+18%) |
What has to go right for Compass, and what could go wrong?
Bear earnings are $2,175m at the first date and $2,243m at the second, before reaching $2,311m. Bull earnings are $2,345m initially and $2,633m at the second date, then $2,956m. The bear case allows for slower growth, mobilisation delays, acquisition costs and financing pressure. The bull case assumes timely launches, stronger volume, better margins and attractive acquisition returns. Recent evidence supports the range: half-year net income was $1,069m, while June organic growth was 7.1%.
How much cash does Compass really make?
Cash from operations rose from $1,604.27 million in 2021 to $3,366 million in 2025. Free cash flow reached $2,209 million, while “real free cash flow” after stock-based pay reached $2,127 million. Working capital released $186 million in 2024 but absorbed $40 million in 2025, so the later cash performance did not rely on the earlier release.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,366 | 3,135 | 2,536 | 2,040 | 1,604.27 |
| − Capital spending | 892 | 901 | 708 | 586 | 524.71 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,209 | 2,007 | 1,613 | 1,260 | 869.95 |
| − Stock pay | 82 | 68 | 54 | 43 | 27.40 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,127 | 1,939 | 1,559 | 1,217 | 842.55 |
| Free cash flow — the company's own count | 1,975 | 1,740 | 1,516 | 1,139 | 901 |
What does an investor pay for Compass today?
A 26.0x trailing P/E means investors pay a substantial price for the last twelve months of earnings. The 25.1x forward P/E makes a similar demand of expected earnings. The 1.2x enterprise-value-to-revenue ratio looks lower, but revenue includes the food, wages and other costs of serving meals. The 6.6x price-to-book ratio values earning power far above recorded net assets.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 30.92 |
| Market value (calculated) | 52,577.91 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 59,544.91 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 26.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 25.1x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.0% |