Canadian Natural Resources dividend
Canadian Natural Resources paid C$2.35 per share in 2025, while free cash flow per share was C$1.54. That leaves the dividend above 2025 free cash flow per share, the memo’s central cash-coverage tension.
How much does Canadian Natural Resources pay in dividends?
The tables show production rising from 2021 through 2025 while funds flow remained below its 2022 peak. Net debt fell from C$18,688 million in 2024 to C$15,944 million in 2025. The central tension is CNQ’s C$2.35 dividend per share against its C$1.54 free cash flow per share in 2025. The 12.6x trailing P/E sits within the recent range, but 2025 earnings included a large AOSP accounting gain.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 38,762 | 35,656 | 35,968 | 42,298 | 30,057 |
| Revenue growth (calculated) | 8.7% | -0.9% | -15.0% | 40.7% | 77.9% |
| EPS, diluted | 5.16 | 2.85 | 3.74 | 4.76 | 3.23 |
| Dividend per share | 2.35 | 2.14 | 1.85 | 1.55 | 1.00 |
Does Canadian Natural Resources cover its dividend with cash?
The pattern changed as cash became less abundant and acquisitions became larger. Shareholder distributions took most or more than all of calculated real free cash flow in 2023 and 2024, while the Chevron purchase absorbed cash and increased borrowing in 2024. By 2025, distributions used a smaller share of free cash flow and debt declined again.
CNQ’s 2026 policy defines free cash flow after dividends, capital spending and abandonment spending. At net debt of C$16 billion or more, it targets 60% of that cash for buybacks. At C$13 billion or less, it targets 100%. Debt repayment preserves room for the next downturn, while buybacks increase the remaining shareholders’ ownership of the existing business.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real free cash flow (after stock pay) (calculated) | 8,858 | 7,496 | 6,694 | 13,689 | 10,504 |
| Dividends paid | 4,871 | 4,429 | 3,891 | 4,926 | 2,170 |
| Shares bought back | 1,449 | 2,660 | 3,318 | 5,571 | 1,581 |
| Acquisitions | 9,163 | 513 | |||
| Debt raised minus debt repaid (calculated) | -1,460 | 7,097 | -416 | -4,010 | -6,962 |
| Returned to shareholders, share of real free cash flow (calculated) | 71.3% | 94.6% | 107.7% | 76.7% | 35.7% |
What could change Canadian Natural Resources’ dividend?
The dividend stays at C$2.50 per share in the first window across all cases. The base then grows at 6.4% annually, reaching C$2.83, while the bull uses 8% growth and reaches C$2.92. The base follows the latest increase and the long record of annual increases; the bear assumes a pause because debt and weak oil cash flow could compete with distributions.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 19,550 (13,330 / 24,660) | 18,390 (6,960 / 26,530) | 18,620 (9,600 / 27,410) |
| Shares (millions) | 2,030 (2,048 / 2,011) | 2,001 (2,034 / 1,967) | 1,975 (2,019 / 1,929) |
| Dividends per share | 2.50 (2.50 / 2.50) | 2.66 (2.50 / 2.70) | 2.83 (2.50 / 2.92) |
| Net debt | 13,840 (17,544 / 11,096) | 14,372 (26,237 / 6,135) | 15,002 (33,074 / 457) |
What is Canadian Natural Resources’ dividend yield today?
The 2.2% free-cash-flow yield and 3.5% dividend yield cannot be compared until their definitions match. CNQ’s policy measure deducts dividends, capital spending and abandonment spending before calling the remainder free cash flow. A conventional measure usually deducts investment but leaves dividends to be paid from what remains.