Cameco stock forecast
Cameco's weighted price is C$73.12 in October 2027, including dividends, for a negative return of 37%. It hinges on reliable Saskatchewan output, faster utility contracting and repeatable Westinghouse earnings.
Where could Cameco's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to a lower share price over all three horizons, although the bull case offers substantial upside from today’s C$117.30. The weighted price is C$73.12 in October 2027, including dividends, for a negative return of 37%. It rises to C$80.39 in October 2028 and C$86.36 in October 2029, still implying negative returns of 31% and 26%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 28.55 (-75 %) | 15.70 (-86 %) | 15.37 (-86 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 74.31 (-36 %) | 77.25 (-34 %) | 79.46 (-32 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 130.12 (+11 %) | 176.06 (+51 %) | 200.48 (+72 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 73.12 (-37 %) | 80.39 (-31 %) | 86.36 (-26 %) |
What has to go right for Cameco, and what could go wrong?
EBITDA is the main operating driver. The base proxy rises across the three forecast dates, reaching C$1,564 million by October 2029. The bear case falls to C$450 million in 2028 because disruptions force costly purchases and contracting weakens. The bull case reaches C$2,412 million by 2029 as reliable production and stronger prices widen the spread. The proxy rose from about C$252 million in 2021. It reached C$1,300 million in 2025. But Cameco’s 2026 delivery plan exceeds guided production, and the company previously cut its McArthur River and Key Lake plan before producing 15.1 million pounds.
The bull case requires reliable Saskatchewan output, faster utility contracting and repeatable Westinghouse earnings. It rises from C$130.12 to C$200.48. The probability is 20% because those improvements must occur together, while recent production shortfalls and uneven investee results argue against treating them as the central case.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| EBITDA | 1,280 (690 / 1,749) | 1,419 (450 / 2,205) | 1,564 (465 / 2,412) |
| Dividends per share | 0.24 (0.24 / 0.28) | 0.28 (0.24 / 0.36) | 0.32 (0.24 / 0.48) |
| Enterprise value to ebitda | 25.00 (18.00 / 32.00) | 23.00 (15.00 / 34.00) | 21.00 (14.00 / 35.00) |
| Net debt | -377 (-27.20 / -710) | -1,032 (-99.20 / -1,730) | -1,800 (-201 / -2,928) |
What this means. A negative net debt number means the company has more cash than debt, not that it owes money below zero.
How much cash does Cameco really make?
Free cash flow subtracts capital spending, lease payments and interest from operating cash flow. Deducting stock pay adds an economic cost, although it does not create another cash payment or an IFRS subtotal.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,408,432 | 905,288 | 688,136 | 304,607 | 458,288 |
| − Capital spending | 333,025 | 211,635 | 153,631 | 143,448 | 98,784 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,020,032 | 602,784 | 491,277 | 119,395 | 317,800 |
| − Stock pay | 9,656 | 6,775 | 3,692 | 3,318 | 4,536 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,010,376 | 596,009 | 487,585 | 116,077 | 313,264 |
What does an investor pay for Cameco today?
The gap between trailing and forward P/E shows the earnings assumption. Trailing P/E uses the last twelve months; forward P/E uses the next twelve months’ expected profit. At the current price, those multiples imply earnings per share rising from about C$0.82 to C$2.53. The lower forward multiple therefore does not make the shares suddenly cheap: it assumes roughly three times as much profit.