CCL dividend: payout and cash coverage
CCL pays C$1.44 per share annually, and its 2025 free cash flow of C$809.0m covered C$223.7m of dividends. The dividend is supported by cash generation, although shareholder returns can exceed internally generated cash in weaker periods.
How much does CCL pay its shareholders?
Dividends rise gradually in the base case, from C$1.53 per share to C$1.77. The bear holds the current C$1.44 rate before cutting to C$1.32. The bull reaches C$1.88.
Does CCL’s dividend have cash coverage?
The base raises the quarterly dividend by C$0.03 each February. The bear assumes two years without an increase because cash pressure persists. The bull uses C$0.04 increases. Dividend capacity is supported by C$809.0m of 2025 free cash flow against C$223.7m paid, while the company reports more than forty years without an omission or reduction.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 809.0 | 551.5 | 494.9 | 503.8 | 478.8 |
| − Dividends paid | 223.7 | 206.4 | 188.2 | 170.3 | 151.0 |
| − Share buybacks | 300.0 | 200.6 | 5.1 | 200.0 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 285.3 | 144.5 | 301.6 | 133.5 | 327.8 |
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 64.7% | 73.8% | 39.1% | 73.5% | 31.5% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is higher because it counts lease payments as debt, while our count leaves leases out but includes certain operating credit lines.
What could change CCL’s dividend?
Checkpoint order pauses, cheaper product mix or RFID volume without profitable repeat sales would damage the 2027–2029 recovery. Capital spending and shareholder returns exceeding internally generated cash would raise net debt and compress the multiple.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 894 (821 / 935) | 990 (808 / 1,035) | 1,053 (816 / 1,141) |
| Shares (millions) | 166 (167 / 165) | 164 (166 / 161) | 161 (166 / 157) |
| Dividends per share | 1.53 (1.44 / 1.56) | 1.65 (1.44 / 1.72) | 1.77 (1.32 / 1.88) |
| Price to earnings | 19.00 (16.00 / 22.00) | 18.50 (15.00 / 22.00) | 18.00 (14.50 / 21.50) |
What is CCL’s dividend yield today against its price?
Free-cash-flow yields tell a less demanding story. They ranged from 4.22% to 5.75% at those year-ends, placing today’s 4.9% inside the earlier range. CCL’s adjusted earnings per share rose 7.4% in 2025, and Innovia’s German capacity could support further sales. But paying more for the recovery as it arrives can mean paying twice: once through higher earnings and again through a higher multiple.
The October 2029 range is C$71.38 to C$156.27. Today's reference price is C$97.22. The central message is measured compounding, with meaningful downside if operating recovery and cash discipline fail.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 97.22 |
| Market value (calculated) | 16,435.9 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.9% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.7% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.5% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is only an estimate, not a known result.