CCL stock forecast
The weighted case reaches C$100.21 in October 2027 and C$112.40 in October 2029. It hinges on profitable operating recovery and cash discipline.
Where could CCL's shares be by 2029?
The weighted case reaches C$100.21 in October 2027 (+5%). It reaches C$112.40 in October 2029 (+21%, dividends included). The bear case has a 28% probability. The base case is 52%; the bull case is 20%.
The weighted price is C$100.21 in October 2027. It rises to C$106.99 in October 2028 and C$112.40 in October 2029. Including dividends, the first return is 5% and the second is 13%. The third is 21%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 78.60 (-18 %) | 72.93 (-22 %) | 71.38 (-22 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 102.33 (+7 %) | 112.02 (+18 %) | 117.62 (+26 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 124.96 (+30 %) | 141.60 (+49 %) | 156.27 (+66 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 100.21 (+5 %) | 106.99 (+13 %) | 112.40 (+21 %) |
What has to go right for CCL, and what could go wrong?
The bear case assumes modest sales growth but prolonged Innovia destocking, weak Checkpoint mix and higher financing costs. Net debt rose from C$1,059.6m at December 2025 to C$1,525.4m by June 2026. The bull case requires profitable German-film qualification, repeat RFID orders and stronger utilization. The C$470m 2026 capital-expenditure guide supports capacity, but does not prove those returns.
How much cash does CCL really make?
Free cash flow then asks what remains after the factories receive capital spending and lease payments. CCL’s own measure is higher because it treats equipment-sale proceeds differently and does not deduct leases. Stock compensation also matters: it is not an immediate cash payment, but it transfers value to employees and may require future repurchases to offset dilution.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,304.4 | 1,063.9 | 1,003.3 | 992.8 | 838.7 |
| − Capital spending | 441.2 | 462.0 | 461.6 | 447.2 | 323.8 |
| − Lease payments | 54.2 | 50.4 | 46.8 | 41.8 | 36.1 |
| = Free cash flow | 809.0 | 551.5 | 494.9 | 503.8 | 478.8 |
| − Stock pay | 40.7 | 33.7 | 49.7 | 38.6 | 28.3 |
| = Real free cash flow | 768.3 | 517.8 | 445.2 | 465.2 | 450.5 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it leaves out lease payments and adds money from selling assets; our real free cash flow also counts shares given to employees as a cost.
What does an investor pay for CCL today?
The earnings multiple asks how much investors pay for each dollar of profit. The trailing P/E uses the last twelve months; the forward P/E uses expected earnings ahead. The lower forward multiple means the price assumes earnings will rise. In Q2 2026, sales growth came from existing operations, acquisitions and currency translation, at 5.0%, 1.8% and 2.3% respectively. Those sources do not deserve equal confidence.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 97.22 |
| Market value (calculated) | 16,435.9 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 17,961.3 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 20.82x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 19.13x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.7% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it is only an estimate, not a known result.