Baker Hughes stock forecast
Baker Hughes's weighted price is $55.64 in October 2029. It hinges on profitable backlog conversion, Chart savings and debt reduction.
Where could Baker Hughes's shares be by 2029?
The probability-weighted price is $42.14 in October 2027, implying a total return of -23% after dividends. It reaches $48.90 in October 2028, still a -9% total return. By October 2029, the weighted price is $55.64, or a 5% total return, against today's $55.70.
The range is unusually wide for the final date. The bear case reaches $29.03, while the bull case reaches $96.23. The probabilities are 30% for bear, 50% for base and 20% for bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 26.03 (-52 %) | 27.85 (-47 %) | 29.03 (-43 %) |
| Base | 50 % | 44.24 (-19 %) | 49.76 (-7 %) | 55.37 (+5 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 61.04 (+11 %) | 78.33 (+44 %) | 96.23 (+79 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 42.14 (-23 %) | 48.90 (-9 %) | 55.64 (+5 %) |
What has to go right for Baker Hughes, and what could go wrong?
Operating profit rises gradually in the base case because IET backlog conversion and Chart savings are assumed to build over time. Base normal operating profit moves from $3,600M in October 2027 to $4,200M in October 2029, with $3,900M in between. The bear case starts at $3,000M and ends at $3,400M; the bull starts at $3,900M and ends at $5,100M. The evidence supports a range: 2025 operating income was $3,342M, while guidance-derived adjusted operating profit is roughly $3,475M to $4,075M. The bear stays below recent margins because projects may be delayed; the bull requires faster conversion, better utilization and successful integration.
The bull case reaches $61.04 initially and $96.23 by October 2029. It requires faster project conversion, higher factory utilization, successful Chart integration, stronger service attachment and rapid deleveraging. Its probability is 20% because those outcomes could reinforce one another, but they are not yet demonstrated in a post-close quarter.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Normal operating profit | 3,600 (3,000 / 3,900) | 3,900 (3,210 / 4,500) | 4,200 (3,400 / 5,100) |
| Shares (millions) | 998 (1,003 / 995) | 1,003 (1,014 / 996) | 1,008 (1,024 / 998) |
| Dividends per share | 0.92 (0.92 / 1.00) | 1.00 (0.92 / 1.12) | 1.08 (0.92 / 1.24) |
| Enterprise value to normal operating profit | 15.00 (12.00 / 18.00) | 15.00 (11.00 / 19.00) | 15.00 (10.00 / 20.00) |
| Net debt | 9,840 (9,890 / 9,490) | 8,580 (7,080 / 7,440) | 7,180 (4,270 / 5,920) |
How much cash does Baker Hughes really make?
Free cash flow begins with cash from operations and subtracts capital spending. Baker Hughes’s own measure adds back selected items, so it is not automatically interchangeable with the simpler calculation. Stock-based pay also matters because it avoids a cash payment but dilutes existing shareholders.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,810 | 3,332 | 3,062 | 1,888 | 2,374 |
| − Capital spending | 1,273 | 1,278 | 1,224 | 989 | 856 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,537 | 2,054 | 1,838 | 899 | 1,518 |
| − Stock pay | 203 | 202 | 197 | 207 | 205 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,334 | 1,852 | 1,641 | 692 | 1,313 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 3.3% | 6.4% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow is higher because it adds back money from selling assets, while our count leaves that money out.