Avery Dennison stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: The weighted forecast is $191.20 by October 2027. It hinges on whether repeat RFID demand and stronger cash conversion follow inventory normalization.
Where could Avery Dennison’s shares be by 2027?
The weighted forecast is $191.20 by October 2027, a 7% total return including dividends. It reaches $210.84 by October 2029, a 23% total return. The cases assign 25% probability to bear, 55% to base and 20% to bull.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 149.40 (-16 %) | 137.95 (-20 %) | 128.26 (-23 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 192.37 (+8 %) | 198.53 (+14 %) | 204.90 (+20 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 240.25 (+34 %) | 282.55 (+60 %) | 330.39 (+89 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 191.20 (+7 %) | 200.19 (+15 %) | 210.84 (+23 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is an estimated average of the bear, base, and bull cases, giving more influence to cases considered more likely; it is not a guaranteed price.
What has to go right or wrong for Avery Dennison?
The bear case requires the 2026 growth burst to reverse. Inventory unwinds, RFID deployments fail to become repeat orders, inflation outruns price recovery and debt limits shareholder returns. The shares reach $149.40 in October 2027 and $128.26 in October 2029. Including dividends, that is a 23% loss. Its 25% probability reflects the stocking evidence and flat 2025 organic sales, but diversification and recent margin recovery prevent it from becoming the central case.
The bull case needs brief inventory correction, repeat RFID production, stronger utilization, successful price recovery and debt control. It reaches $240.25 first and $330.39 last. Including dividends, the 2029 return is 89%. Its 20% probability reflects the considerable payoff, but also the number of conditions that must hold together.
How much cash does Avery Dennison really make?
A “real” free-cash-flow view deducts stock compensation as an economic cost to shareholders, producing $684.5 million in 2025. Avery’s own measure was $707.1 million, up from $699.5 million, because it also deducts software and deferred spending while adding specified proceeds. Different definitions can therefore show improvement while operating cash weakens.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 881.4 | 938.8 | 826.0 | 961.0 | 1,046.8 |
| − Capital spending | 169.0 | 208.8 | 265.3 | 278.1 | 255.0 |
| = Free cash flow | 712.4 | 730.0 | 560.7 | 682.9 | 791.8 |
| − Stock pay | 27.9 | 28.7 | 22.3 | 47.4 | 37.2 |
| = Real free cash flow | 684.5 | 701.3 | 538.4 | 635.5 | 754.6 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow can differ from ours because it adds back some cash items and subtracts other cash items that we treat differently.
What does an investor pay today for Avery Dennison?
At $181.925 a share on October 27, 2026, Avery Dennison is priced for steady earnings that keep becoming cash.
| Today (Oct 27, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 181.925 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 19.9x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 17.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.2% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.0% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes debt and subtracts cash, showing what the whole business would cost.