Couche-Tard stock forecast
The weighted forecast for Couche-Tard is C$75.96 in October 2027 and C$89.81 in October 2029. It hinges on foodservice, distribution savings and integration benefits arriving together.
Where could Couche-Tard's shares be in October 2029?
The weighted forecast is C$75.96 in October 2027, a 2% loss including dividends. It reaches C$89.81 in October 2029, an 18% gain. Bear probability is 25%, base probability is 55%, and bull probability is 20%. The base case assumes normalized earnings growth and a P/E near 16x.
The forecast’s central outcome is modest appreciation, but the possible range remains wide. The weighted price is C$75.96 in October 2027, C$81.58 in October 2028 and C$89.81 in October 2029, equivalent to returns including dividends of negative 2%, positive 6% and positive 18%. The 2029 outcomes range from C$50.44 in the bear case to C$130.19 in the bull case, against today’s C$78.64.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 61.06 (-21 %) | 55.35 (-27 %) | 50.44 (-33 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 77.36 (-0 %) | 83.65 (+9 %) | 93.02 (+22 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 90.72 (+17 %) | 108.71 (+41 %) | 130.19 (+70 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 75.96 (-2 %) | 81.58 (+6 %) | 89.81 (+18 %) |
What has to go right for Couche-Tard, and what could go wrong?
The bear case reaches US$2,816 million as revenue grows to US$88,000 million but margin falls to 3.20%. Fuel-margin normalization, weaker volumes and Żabka financing explain the deterioration. The bull case reaches US$3,990 million on US$95,000 million of revenue and a 4.20% margin, requiring foodservice, distribution savings and integration benefits to arrive together. Management targets adjusted EBITDA growth of 6% to 8% and adjusted diluted EPS growth of at least 10%, but that guidance excludes transactions that materially change the portfolio.
How much cash does Couche-Tard really make?
Investment then claims cash. Capital spending was US$1,990.5 million, and lease payments were US$581.7 million. The resulting free cash flow was US$2,791.0 million. Deducting stock-based pay as an economic cost leaves real free cash flow of US$2,763.9 million, although that deduction is not an additional cash payment.
| Apr 2026 | Apr 2025 | Apr 2024 | Apr 2023 | Apr 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,363.2 | 5,037.1 | 4,817.2 | 4,344.6 | 3,944.9 |
| − Capital spending | 1,990.5 | 2,326.6 | 1,943.1 | 1,803.8 | 1,664.5 |
| − Lease payments | 581.7 | 513.2 | 478.9 | 438.9 | 443.6 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,791.0 | 2,197.3 | 2,395.2 | 2,101.9 | 1,836.8 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,763.9 | 2,174.3 | 2,364.3 | 2,073.6 | 1,813.2 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow differs because it leaves out changes in money tied up in stock and unpaid customer bills and uses different deductions, while our count includes them.
What does an investor pay for Couche-Tard today?
At C$78.64, market value is C$72,188.6 million. Enterprise value is C$82,343.8 million; trailing and forward P/E are 16.0x and 16.7x. The company’s free cash flow yield and real free cash flow yield are both 5.5%. Dividend yield is 1.1%; buyback yield is 3.1%. Fiscal 2026 revenue reached US$76,506.6 million, while the company’s real free cash flow was 3.6% of revenue. Diluted EPS rose to US$3.37 and real free cash flow per share to US$2.96. The turn is higher profit alongside weaker comparable fuel volumes.
| Today (Oct 14, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 78.64 |
| Market value (calculated) | 72,188.6 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 82,343.8 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.5% |
What this means. The share price labeled today is actually the closing price from October 13, one day earlier.