Aon dividend: cash coverage and yield
Aon’s dividend is forecast at $3.41 per share in 2027, rising to $3.98 in 2029. Aon’s dividend uses only part of the cash, leaving room for other priorities.
How much does Aon pay per share?
Dividends rise more slowly than the latest increase in the base case. They are $3.41 per share in 2027 and $3.68 in 2028, reaching $3.98 in 2029 through assumed 8% annual increases. The bear case gives $3.28 in 2027 and $3.48 in 2029 after a pause and 3% increases. The bull case gives $3.44 in 2027 and $4.17 in 2029 by repeating 10% increases. Aon raised its quarterly dividend by 10% in 2026 and generated $3,218 million of free cash flow in 2025, supporting increases but not guaranteeing them.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 3,105 (2,795 / 3,250) | 3,534 (2,825 / 3,864) | 3,815 (2,970 / 4,257) |
| Shares (millions) | 214 (214 / 214) | 215 (216 / 212) | 216 (218 / 210) |
| Dividends per share | 3.41 (3.28 / 3.44) | 3.68 (3.38 / 3.79) | 3.98 (3.48 / 4.17) |
| Price to earnings | 16.00 (13.00 / 18.00) | 16.00 (12.00 / 20.00) | 16.00 (11.00 / 22.00) |
What this means. Price to earnings shows how many dollars investors pay for each dollar of the company's yearly profit.
Does Aon’s cash cover its dividend?
Aon’s free cash flow—cash from operations after capital spending—has funded shareholders, acquisitions and debt reduction. A payout above 100% means dividends and buybacks exceeded that cash generation, so borrowing or asset sales filled the gap; a lower payout leaves more cash for the balance sheet.
Cash flow is the practical test of that valuation. Free cash flow means operating cash after capital spending, so it is closer than accounting profit to the money available for debt, dividends and buybacks. Aon generated $3.2 billion of free cash flow in 2025, while first-half 2026 reflected a tax payment tied to the NFP sale and working-capital timing. Its dividend uses only part of the cash, leaving room for other priorities.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 3,218 | 2,817 | 3,183 | 3,023 | 2,045 |
| − Dividends paid | 629 | 562 | 489 | 463 | 447 |
| − Share buybacks | 1,000 | 1,000 | 2,700 | 3,203 | 3,543 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 1,528 | 1,210 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 50.6% | 55.4% | 100.2% | 121.3% | 195.1% |
What this means. The increase in cash can include money held for clients or businesses being sold, so it may not all be available for the company to spend.
What could change Aon’s dividend?
Cash generation, restructuring savings and transaction funding decide the outcome. Aon targets $370 million of cumulative annual savings by year-end 2026 and $450 million of annualized savings by year-end 2027. The Q3 2026 results call is scheduled for October 28. USI is expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to regulatory and customary conditions. Client retention and organic growth will test the integration. USI is expected to dilute adjusted EPS in 2027 and add to it in 2028; debt repayment must resume buybacks.
What is Aon’s dividend yield against its share price?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 292.55 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.2% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 1.1% |
What this means. The last twelve months price-to-earnings number looks cheaper because its profit includes a one-time gain from selling NFP Wealth, which is not regular business profit.