Aon stock forecast
Aon's weighted forecast is $283.85 in October 2029. It hinges on cash generation, restructuring savings and transaction funding.
Where could Aon's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $225.33 in October 2027, a 22% loss including dividends. It is $283.85 in October 2029, about a 1% total return. Bear probability is 25%. Base and bull probabilities are 54% and 21%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 169.47 (-41 %) | 156.80 (-44 %) | 149.86 (-45 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 232.26 (-19 %) | 262.51 (-8 %) | 283.25 (+1 %) |
| Bull | 21 % | 274.00 (-5 %) | 364.01 (+27 %) | 444.91 (+56 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 225.33 (-22 %) | 257.40 (-10 %) | 283.85 (+1 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
What has to go right for Aon, and what could go wrong?
Cash generation, restructuring savings and transaction funding decide the outcome. Aon targets $370 million of cumulative annual savings by year-end 2026 and $450 million of annualized savings by year-end 2027. The Q3 2026 results call is scheduled for October 28. USI is expected to close in Q4 2026, subject to regulatory and customary conditions. Client retention and organic growth will test the integration. USI is expected to dilute adjusted EPS in 2027 and add to it in 2028; debt repayment must resume buybacks.
The bear case gives $2,795 million in 2027 and $2,825 million in 2028. It reaches $2,970 million in 2029 because debt, integration costs, weaker pricing, or client losses hold normalized margins below the base case. The bull case gives $3,250 million in 2027 and $3,864 million in 2028. It reaches $4,257 million in 2029 if retention, cross-selling, savings, and deleveraging arrive faster. Aon’s 6% organic growth in both 2024 and 2025 supports continued expansion, but the 2025 disposal gain is excluded from every case.
How much cash does Aon really make?
Free cash flow is cash from operations after capital spending. Aon’s own measure is a useful starting point, but it does not represent every dollar available for discretionary use. Stock-based compensation deserves a further deduction because employee awards either dilute existing shareholders or require repurchases to offset that dilution. The resulting figure is a stricter measure of cash available to owners.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,481 | 3,035 | 3,435 | 3,219 | 2,182 |
| − Capital spending | 263 | 218 | 252 | 196 | 137 |
| = Free cash flow | 3,218 | 2,817 | 3,183 | 3,023 | 2,045 |
| − Stock pay | 432 | 474 | 438 | 397 | 449 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,786 | 2,343 | 2,745 | 2,626 | 1,596 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 16.2% | 14.9% | 20.5% | 21.0% | 13.1% |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow matches ours, but real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves.
What does an investor pay for Aon today?
The earnings multiple needs interpretation. P/E means the share price divided by earnings per share, or how much investors pay for each dollar of profit. Aon’s recent earnings included a gain from selling NFP Wealth, which makes the denominator look stronger than ordinary operations alone. Buybacks can also lift EPS: if the same profit is divided among fewer shares, each remaining share represents more of it. Aon repurchased about $1 billion of shares in 2025, but expects debt repayment to take priority after USI.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 292.55 |
| Market value (calculated) | 62,057 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 75,757 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 16.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 15.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.2% |
What this means. The last twelve months price-to-earnings number looks cheaper because its profit includes a one-time gain from selling NFP Wealth, which is not regular business profit.