Air Liquide stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Air Liquide's weighted scenario reaches €195.89 in October 2029, with probabilities of 27% bear, 55% base and 18% bull. The forecast hinges on whether Air Liquide converts its infrastructure backlog into cash per share.
Where could Air Liquide's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is €193.54 in October 2027, a 13% total return including dividends. It falls to €185.07 in October 2028, still a 10% return. It reaches €195.89 in October 2029, a 19% return. [8.1]
At the last date, the bear case is €130.48. The bull case is €296.38 against today’s €174.68. [8.1] The probabilities are 27% for bear and 55% for base. Bull receives 18%, because it requires several favourable developments together.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 150.00 (-12 %) | 131.92 (-21 %) | 130.48 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 202.21 (+18 %) | 189.94 (+13 %) | 195.12 (+18 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 232.38 (+35 %) | 249.91 (+48 %) | 296.38 (+77 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 193.54 (+13 %) | 185.07 (+10 %) | 195.89 (+19 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the average value after giving more influence to cases considered more likely.
What has to go right for Air Liquide's forecast?
The base reflects historical adjusted EBITDA growth of about 6.5% a year and the analyst forecast for 2027 recurring operating profit of €6,702m. The rough 2026 EBITDA bridge is €8.65bn, so the forecast allows project ramp-ups and margin gains without assuming uninterrupted execution. Bear reflects weaker volumes and delays; bull assumes faster utilization and resilient electronics demand.
How much cash does Air Liquide really make?
Gas plants require spending before they produce revenue, and existing plants, cylinders and safety systems also need maintenance. In 2025, operations generated €6.5 billion, while capital spending consumed €3.8 billion. After leases and interest, free cash flow was €2.2 billion, only slightly above its 2021 level despite higher earnings.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 6,518.4 | 6,322.2 | 6,263.0 | 5,810.1 | 5,570.7 |
| − Capital spending | 3,843.4 | 3,525.1 | 3,393.4 | 3,273.0 | 2,916.8 |
| − Lease payments | 232.7 | 239.1 | 240.1 | 249.0 | 241.4 |
| − Interest paid | 228.0 | 263.5 | 262.3 | 269.7 | 237.9 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,214.3 | 2,294.5 | 2,367.2 | 2,018.4 | 2,174.6 |
| = Real free cash flow | 2,145.8 | 2,254.7 | 2,301.2 | 1,981.5 | 2,134.1 |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but it gives employees part of the company, so it is subtracted to show what is truly left for shareholders.
What does Air Liquide's stock price ask today?
Air Liquide’s stock price asks for dependable profits while offering only a modest immediate cash return.
| Today (Oct 24, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 174.68 |
| Market value (calculated) | 111,252.2 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 125,132.1 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.5x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 24.3x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.9% |
What this means. The next 12 months price-to-earnings ratio uses analysts’ expected profit, so it may be wrong if the company earns more or less than they predict.