Air Products stock forecast
Air Products’ weighted price reaches $321.75 in October 2027, a moderate-gain scenario including dividends. It hinges on turning project spending into durable earnings, cash and lower debt.
Where could Air Products’ shares be by 2029?
The forecast points to a moderate gain if Air Products delivers a measured recovery. The weighted price reaches $321.75 in October 2027, a 10% total return including dividends. It reaches $343.06 in October 2028, a 19% return. By October 2029, the weighted price is $367.57, a 30% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 237.67 (-18 %) | 226.15 (-20 %) | 218.02 (-20 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 340.96 (+16 %) | 362.73 (+26 %) | 386.83 (+37 %) |
| Bull | 17 % | 398.11 (+35 %) | 471.96 (+63 %) | 551.57 (+92 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 321.75 (+10 %) | 343.06 (+19 %) | 367.57 (+30 %) |
What has to go right for Air Products, and what could go wrong?
The bear case assumes core gas earnings grow too slowly to fund projects and dividends. NEOM delays, weak ammonia economics, soft volumes, and higher debt compress the multiple even if adjusted EPS rises. The shares fall to $237.67 in October 2027 and $218.02 by October 2029. Its 28% probability reflects the 30% bear assessments for EBITDA, the multiple, and net debt, moderated by APD's contracted gas business.
The bull case requires stronger volumes, timely industrial-gas capacity, successful NEOM commissioning, and economic ammonia sales. Cash generation then reduces debt and supports a higher multiple. The shares reach $398.11 in October 2027 and $551.57 by October 2029. Its 17% probability is lower because several uncertain events must succeed together.
How much cash does Air Products really make?
APD generated 3,256.8 million of operating cash in September 2025 and spent 7,022.6 million on capital additions. Free cash flow was therefore -3,765.8 million. This does not prove that customers are failing to pay; it shows that investment in future assets exceeded current operating cash.
| Sep 2025 | Sep 2024 | Sep 2023 | Sep 2022 | Sep 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 3,256.8 | 3,646.7 | 3,205.7 | 3,170.6 | 3,335.2 |
| − Capital spending | 7,022.6 | 6,796.7 | 4,626.4 | 2,926.5 | 2,464.2 |
| = Free cash flow | -3,765.8 | -3,150.0 | -1,420.7 | 244.1 | 871.0 |
| − Stock pay | 76.4 | 61.8 | 59.9 | 48.4 | 44.5 |
| = Real free cash flow | -3,842.2 | -3,211.8 | -1,480.6 | 195.7 | 826.5 |
What this means. Capital spending includes long-term deposits and some spending paid for by lenders and minority owners, so it is more than just cash the company spent on its own equipment and buildings.
What does an investor pay for Air Products today?
The P/E, or price-to-earnings ratio, compares a share price with earnings per share. Forecast P/E is more useful than the recent reported loss, but only if recovery arrives. Fiscal 2025 included about $3.6 billion of project-exit costs, while fiscal 2024 included a $1.2 billion after-tax gain from selling LNG. Adjusted earnings remove selected unusual items, but management chooses the adjustments. The forward valuation therefore pays for normalized earnings, not the last reported year.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 299.59 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | not meaningful |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 20.7x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | -5.6% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | -5.8% |
What this means. The last-twelve-month price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful because the company lost money during that period.