Autodesk stock forecast
Autodesk’s weighted forecast is $286.91 in October 2027, $325.03 in October 2028, and $364.19 in October 2029. It hinges on cash generation, MaintainX integration, buybacks, and the valuation multiple.
Where could Autodesk's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $286.91 in October 2027 and $325.03 in October 2028. It reaches $364.19 in October 2029. The first two total returns are 20% and 35%. The third is 52%.
The forecast assigns 25% to the bear case and 55% to the base case. The bull case carries 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 187.44 (-22 %) | 187.12 (-22 %) | 190.57 (-21 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 302.60 (+26 %) | 330.39 (+38 %) | 357.44 (+49 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 368.13 (+53 %) | 482.67 (+101 %) | 599.79 (+150 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 286.91 (+20 %) | 325.03 (+35 %) | 364.19 (+52 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is an average based on the chances of each case, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for Autodesk?
The bear case gives $1,552M and $1,747M in the first two years, then $1,954M. It assumes weaker project activity, slower seat expansion, and continuing MaintainX costs. The bull case gives $2,193M and $2,600M, then $3,016M. It requires paid adoption of cloud tools, successful cross-selling, and faster operating leverage. Construction starts fell 26% in 2009, supporting a meaningful cyclical downside risk.
How much cash does Autodesk really make?
Autodesk defines free cash flow as operating cash flow minus capital spending. The company reported $2,409 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2026. Subtracting $788 million of stock compensation produces the table’s “real free cash flow.” That is an analytical measure, not Autodesk’s standard count: stock pay is non-cash in the period but still affects owners through dilution.
| Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,452 | 1,607 | 1,313 | 2,071 | 1,531 |
| − Capital spending | 43 | 40 | 31 | 40 | 56 |
| = Free cash flow | 2,409 | 1,567 | 1,282 | 2,031 | 1,475 |
| − Stock pay | 788 | 683 | 703 | 657 | 555 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,621 | 884 | 579 | 1,374 | 920 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 22.5% | 14.4% | 10.5% | 27.5% | 21.0% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because paying employees with shares gives away part of the company even though no cash leaves immediately.
What does an investor pay for Autodesk today?
The trailing P/E says how much investors pay for each dollar of recent earnings. Autodesk’s trailing P/E is 31.0x, while its forward P/E is 16.9x. At the same share price, that gap implies an earnings denominator about 83% larger. It is therefore a forecast of rapid improvement, not an automatic bargain. Autodesk reports separate GAAP and non-GAAP FY27 outlooks, so the forward multiple matters only after its earnings definition is clear.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 239.90 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 31.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 16.9x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 6.3x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 4.8% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 3.2% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ forecast profit, so it is only an estimate, not a fact about the company’s past earnings.