ADM dividend: cash coverage and outlook
ADM's current annual dividend rate is $2.08 per share, and its $4,204 million of free cash flow covered the $987 million dividend in 2025. Coverage was less comfortable after stock compensation and excluding the working-capital release.
How much does ADM pay in dividends over the years shown?
Dividends follow the company’s long record but not an aggressive payout assumption. The base case rises from $2.11 per share to $2.20. The bear case freezes the current annual rate at $2.08, while the bull case reaches $2.36. ADM has raised its dividend for 53 consecutive years, but the Board gives no guarantee of future increases.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 2.04 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.60 | 1.47 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 4.72 | 4.93 | 2.58 | 0.00 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 6.65 | 8.11 | |||
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 4.23 | 1.26 | 0.34 |
Does ADM cover its dividend with cash?
After $1,248 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $4,204 million in 2025. After stock compensation of $83 million, “real free cash flow” was $4,121 million; excluding the working-capital release leaves an illustrative $1,358 million. The $987 million dividend was covered, but with less comfort than headline free cash flow suggests.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 4,204 | 1,227 | 2,966 | 2,159 | 5,426 |
| − Dividends paid | 987 | 985 | 977 | 899 | 834 |
| − Share buybacks | 0 | 2,327 | 2,673 | 1,450 | 0 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 3,217 | 4,592 | |||
| Paid out, % of free cash flow | 23.5% | 269.9% | 123.1% | 108.8% | 15.4% |
| Paid out, % of real free cash flow | 24.0% | 287.3% | 127.9% | 116.7% | 15.8% |
What this means. The company's own net debt is higher than our count because it does not subtract short-term investments that can be sold quickly.
What could change ADM's dividend?
Management guides to 2026 adjusted EPS of $5.15–$5.60 per share, including an expected $250 million net benefit from 45Z. It plans $1,300–$1,500 million of 2026 capital expenditure, targets adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA of about 2.0x at year-end, and targets $500–$750 million of savings from the program begun in 2025.
The view would move toward the bear case in 2027–2029 if added capacity weakens crush margins, basis stays poor, or unresolved claims create cash costs. Slower 45Z monetization and persistent capex would further limit debt reduction.
What is ADM's dividend yield at today's price?
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 82.61 |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.6% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.4% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 2.5% |
What this means. The next-12-month price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, not profit the company has already earned.