ADM stock forecast
ADM’s weighted scenario is $111.84 in October 2029. It hinges on processing margins and repeat Nutrition earnings becoming cash after maintenance and seasonal funding.
Where could ADM’s shares go?
The weighted price is $88.30 in October 2027. It rises to $97.94 in October 2028 and $111.84 in October 2029. With dividends, the corresponding total return is 9% in 2027 and 24% in 2028. It reaches 43% in 2029.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 55.17 (-31 %) | 44.26 (-41 %) | 63.64 (-15 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 95.57 (+18 %) | 110.68 (+39 %) | 116.27 (+49 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 127.90 (+57 %) | 158.57 (+97 %) | 192.03 (+141 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 88.30 (+9 %) | 97.94 (+24 %) | 111.84 (+43 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a promise that the share price will reach that amount.
What has to go right for ADM?
The bear row falls below $3,400 million in 2028 before recovering. The bull row rises above $5,100 million by 2028 and ends beyond the historical range. Better crush margins, utilization, ethanol economics, Nutrition demand and cost savings support the upside, but the latest $896 million quarter also included about $100 million of favorable timing effects and insurance proceeds. Management’s 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.15–$5.60 and the expected $250 million 45Z benefit support recovery, while added capacity and weak basis create downside.
How much cash does ADM really make?
After $1,248 million of capital spending, free cash flow was $4,204 million in 2025. After stock compensation of $83 million, “real free cash flow” was $4,121 million; excluding the working-capital release leaves an illustrative $1,358 million. The $987 million dividend was covered, but with less comfort than headline free cash flow suggests.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 5,452 | 2,790 | 4,460 | 3,478 | 6,595 |
| − Capital spending | 1,248 | 1,563 | 1,494 | 1,319 | 1,169 |
| = Free cash flow | 4,204 | 1,227 | 2,966 | 2,159 | 5,426 |
| − Stock pay | 83 | 74 | 112 | 147 | 161 |
| = Real free cash flow | 4,121 | 1,153 | 2,854 | 2,012 | 5,265 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.1% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 6.2% |
What this means. Stock pay is deducted even though it uses no cash because giving employees shares gives away part of the company.
What does an investor pay for ADM today?
At $82.61 a share on October 19, 2026, Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) is priced for a recovery in profits. The central question is whether that recovery can survive the commodity cycle.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 82.61 |
| Market value (calculated) | 39,814.68 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 14.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.6% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.4% |
What this means. The next-12-month price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ guesses about future profit, not profit the company has already earned.