Admiral stock forecast
Admiral's weighted forecast is 3781.85 GBp in October 2029, with 52% assigned to the base case, 30% to the bear case and 18% to the bull case. Admiral's forecast hinges on motor repricing earning through without claims inflation eroding margins.
Where could Admiral's shares be by 2029?
The final bear-to-bull range is 1891.37 to 6870.23 GBp. Today's price is 3784.00 GBp. The forecast assigns 52% to the base case, 30% to the bear case and 18% to the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 2421.24 (-33 %) | 2031.76 (-41 %) | 1891.37 (-42 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 3711.17 (+2 %) | 3760.01 (+7 %) | 3803.45 (+13 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 4998.36 (+36 %) | 5896.93 (+65 %) | 6870.23 (+96 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 3555.89 (-2 %) | 3626.18 (+3 %) | 3781.85 (+11 %) |
What drives Admiral's bear, base and bull cases?
The bear case starts at £710m, falls to £660m and then £650m because claims inflation and competition prevent repricing from improving margins. UK Motor claims costs were 7% higher year on year in Q2 2026. The bull case starts at £950m, then reaches £1,050m and £1,150m as customer growth and profitable scaling in Europe, MoreThan, Flock and Admiral Money compound. UK risks rose to 9.58m from 8.80m, while Flock was acquired for £76.4m cash. The forecast excludes separate benefits from reserve releases and acquisition accounting because 2025 profit included £386.4m of releases.
How does Admiral turn insurance and lending into shareholder returns?
The insurer holds financial assets to meet future claims and regulatory capital needs. Premium receipts, claim payments, investment purchases and sales, and loans advanced to customers therefore move cash without mapping neatly onto ordinary operating profit. Free cash flow, free-cash-flow yield and the current ratio can consequently mislead.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EPS, diluted | 242.70 | 212.80 | |||
| − Dividends, per share | 232.89 | 120.73 | 100.67 | 218.31 | 241.63 |
| − Share buybacks, per share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| = Kept, per share | 9.83 | 92.00 | |||
| Diluted shares (average of the year), change | 0.3% | 0.4% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 1.1% |
What this means. The dividend amount includes special one-time payments, so it is higher than the company’s normal yearly dividend.
What does an investor pay for Admiral's earnings?
The first lens is the price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E. It says how much investors pay for each pound of profit, while a forward P/E uses an estimate of future profit. Imagine paying £17 for a shop that earned £1 last year but is expected to earn £1.25 next year. The lower forward multiple is attractive only if that extra profit arrives.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 3,784.00 |
| Market value (calculated) | 11,571.6 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 17.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 13.9x |
| Price to book (calculated) | 7.7x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.2% |
What this means. The next-year price-to-profit number uses analysts’ estimated profit, so it is not guaranteed.