Illumina stock forecast
Illumina's weighted forecast points to $189.30 in October 2029, a 28% loss. Illumina's outcome hinges on clinical consumables growth turning NovaSeq X placements into regular purchases.
Where could Illumina's shares be by 2029?
The weighted price is $167.64 in October 2027, a 36% loss. It is $189.30 in October 2029, a 28% loss. The bear case has 27% probability; the base case has 53%. The bull case has 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 75.36 (-71 %) | 67.77 (-74 %) | 64.53 (-75 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 183.89 (-30 %) | 183.54 (-30 %) | 180.24 (-32 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 249.13 (-5 %) | 312.57 (+19 %) | 381.74 (+45 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 167.64 (-36 %) | 178.09 (-32 %) | 189.30 (-28 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Illumina?
The base revenue path is $4,980 million at a 17.3% normalized net margin. Revenue then reaches $5,330 million at a 17.7% margin, before ending at $5,700 million and an 18.0% margin. Clinical consumables outside Greater China grew 15% in Q2 2026, and about 70% of NovaSeq X placements were clinical. Management also guided to 2026 revenue of $4.60–$4.64 billion and a 23.4%–23.6% operating margin, while retaining a high-single-digit 2027 growth ambition.
The bear case gives $628 million on $4,650 million of revenue in 2027. Its normalized net margin is 13.5%. Earnings then fall to $598 million and $605 million, as research weakness, China uncertainty and pricing pressure prevent recovery. Research and applied consumables outside Greater China fell 7%, while Greater China revenue declined 12% in Q2 2026. More than 30% data growth produced only 8% consumables growth in a prior quarter, showing the monetization risk.
How much cash does Illumina really make?
Stock compensation deserves a separate deduction. Illumina added back $275 million of share-based compensation in 2025 because no cash left at the grant date. Shareholders nevertheless bear dilution unless the company later spends cash to offset it. The memo’s “real free cash flow” subtracts that ownership cost once.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,079 | 1,207 | |||
| − Capital spending | 148 | 137 | 183 | 262 | 201 |
| = Free cash flow | 931 | 1,070 | |||
| − Stock pay | 275 | ||||
| = Real free cash flow | 656 |
What this means. The company reports 931 million dollars of free cash flow, but our real count is lower at 656 million dollars because shares given to employees reduce existing shareholders' ownership even though no cash was paid.
What does an investor pay for Illumina today?
Today’s 49.1x trailing P/E means investors pay $49.10 for each dollar of recent earnings. That is demanding because those earnings must become larger and durable enough to justify the price.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 263.21 |
| Market value (calculated) | 39,744.6949 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 40,567.6949 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 49.1x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 43.2x |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 1.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is higher than market value because it includes the company's debt after subtracting its cash.