Pop Mart stock forecast
The weighted forecast is HKD158.73 in October 2027. It hinges on Pop Mart proving its next characters can carry growth as THE MONSTERS normalizes.
Where could Pop Mart's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is HKD158.73 in October 2027, a +13% return. It reaches HKD224.00 in October 2029, a +63% return including dividends. The bear case carries 35% probability. Base is 45%; bull is 20%.
The last-date range runs from HKD68.65 in the bear case to HKD494.91 in the bull case. Today's price is HKD142.20. The base case is most likely at 45%. The bear case carries 35%, and the bull case 20%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 35% | 90.82 (-35%) | 79.26 (-42%) | 68.65 (-49%) |
| Base | 45% | 164.82 (+18%) | 193.79 (+40%) | 224.42 (+64%) |
| Bull | 20% | 263.88 (+88%) | 369.25 (+165%) | 494.91 (+257%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 158.73 (+13%) | 188.80 (+37%) | 224.00 (+63%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull outcomes, so it is not a fourth possible case.
What has to go right for Pop Mart, and what could go wrong?
Base earnings rise from CNY14,100 million in October 2027 to CNY16,655.296 million in October 2029. The forecast uses revenue growth that slows from an initially strong level and margins below 2025's 34.4%, because newer IPs can partly replace THE MONSTERS while overseas returns and inventory costs remain uneven. Bear earnings fall from CNY11,340 million to CNY11,031.6 million as the breakout fades. Bull earnings rise from CNY16,120 million to CNY24,760.32 million if new characters, overseas restocking and inventory normalization reinforce one another. Management has already said it would “highly probably” miss its 2026 growth target, which supports moderation rather than extrapolation.
The bull case needs new characters to become durable franchises, overseas stores to achieve better productivity, inventory to normalize and cash conversion to recover. It lifts the shares from HKD263.88 in 2027 to HKD494.91 in 2029. Its 20% probability reflects the number of conditions that must succeed together and the limited public store-cohort data.
How much cash does Pop Mart really make?
Free cash flow remained substantial after capital spending, lease payments and interest. But real free cash flow, after stock-based pay, represented a smaller share of revenue than it had in the prior year. In the six months ended 30 June 2026, free cash flow also fell from the comparable period even as profit continued to grow.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 10,865.152 | 4,954.22 | 1,990.596 | 891.022 | 779.097 |
| − Capital spending | 985.25 | 372.668 | 324.179 | 266.132 | 287.502 |
| − Lease payments | 608.288 | 505.104 | 384.999 | 323.041 | 220.126 |
| = Free cash flow | 9,271.614 | 4,076.448 | 1,281.418 | 301.849 | 271.469 |
| − Stock pay | 76.629 | 94.817 | 101.748 | 97.739 | 147.068 |
| = Real free cash flow | 9,194.985 | 3,981.631 | 1,179.67 | 204.11 | 124.401 |
What this means. Stock pay is subtracted even though no cash leaves today because giving employees shares gives away part of what shareholders own.
What does an investor pay today for Pop Mart?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 142.20 |
| Market value (calculated) | 189,379.003 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 172,978.77 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 12.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 5.7% |
What this means. Enterprise value is lower than market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt, which are subtracted.