New Oriental stock forecast 2027–2029
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: New Oriental's weighted scenario is HK$32.78 by October 2027, based on the bear, base and bull cases. It hinges on delivering guidance, filling added teaching capacity and turning rebuilt education and commerce into durable per-share cash.
Where could New Oriental's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is HK$32.78 by October 2027, a −7% return including dividends. It reaches HK$49.01 by October 2029, a 46% return. The bear case has 25% probability and the base case 55%. The bull case has 20%.
The forecast’s weighted share price is HKD32.78 by October 2027, HKD40.98 by October 2028 and HKD49.01 by October 2029; the stated returns include dividends. Those figures imply returns of -7%, 20% and 46% from today’s HKD36.76. The October 2029 range runs from HKD16.48 in the bear case to HKD85.16 in the bull case. The base case has the highest probability because it assumes guidance is delivered and margins improve gradually.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 20.15 (-41 %) | 17.59 (-46 %) | 16.48 (-47 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 34.27 (-3 %) | 43.57 (+27 %) | 50.65 (+51 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 44.48 (+25 %) | 63.12 (+81 %) | 85.16 (+147 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 32.78 (-7 %) | 40.98 (+20 %) | 49.01 (+46 %) |
What has to go right—or wrong—for New Oriental?
By FY2027, revenue must land within guidance and added teaching capacity must fill centers more fully. Through FY2028–FY2029, digital-user renewals and positive contribution profit would support the bull case; weak retention, licensing restrictions or underfilled centers would shift it toward bear. East Buy’s sales mix and platform concentration, plus the legal durability of VIE arrangements, will determine whether growth earns a lasting valuation. The investment rests on whether New Oriental can turn rebuilt education capacity and East Buy scale into durable, per-share cash while its VIE control holds.
How much cash does New Oriental really make?
Operating cash flow can therefore exceed accounting profit. Changes in working capital, especially customer prepayments, can release cash in one year and then fade as a source of growth. Capital spending also absorbs cash, while stock compensation is an economic cost even though it is not the same as a cash payment.
| May 2026 | May 2025 | May 2024 | May 2023 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| = Free cash flow | 780.211 | 654.654 | 873.25 | 827.963 |
| − Stock pay | 88.466 | 59.933 | 122.458 | 89.788 |
| = Real free cash flow | 691.745 | 594.721 | 750.792 | 738.175 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 12.2% | 12.1% | 17.4% | 24.6% |
What this means. Free cash flow is higher than real free cash flow because real free cash flow also subtracts shares given to employees as pay.
What does an investor pay for New Oriental today?
The gap between trailing and forward earnings multiples says investors expect materially higher earnings per share. That increase could come from higher total profit, fewer shares after repurchases, or both. Cash flow provides a useful check: in the quarter ended August 31, 2026, operating cash inflow was US$195.4 million and capital spending was US$65.8 million, leaving a rough remainder before other adjustments.
| Today (Oct 29, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 36.76 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.6x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.8x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 10.7% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.5% |
What this means. The business value is much lower than the stock-market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt, which are subtracted.