AIA dividend: cash, yield and history
AIA pays a progressive dividend per share, with the reported years shown in the Results table and the forecast using progressive increases of 8% annually. AIA's 2025 free-surplus bridge shows US$4,706 million used for dividends and repurchases, and AIA targets returning 75% of annual net FSG through dividends and buybacks.
How much does AIA pay per share over the years shown?
The base dividend path uses progressive increases of 8% annually, below the latest 10% interim increase. The bear case cuts and then pauses the dividend because weaker visitor demand and capital generation constrain returns. The bull case assumes 11% annual growth as China branches and agency economics remain strong. AIA describes its dividend policy as prudent, sustainable and progressive, but the payout competes with buybacks, new business and capital buffers.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Insurance revenue | 21,618 | 19,314 | 17,514 | 16,319 | |
| Underwriting result | 6,910 | 5,769 | 5,091 | 5,466 | |
| Core earnings (company's measure) | 7,136 | 6,605 | 6,213 | 6,421 | |
| Net income | 6,234 | 6,836 | 3,764 | 3,331 | |
| Dividend per share | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.61 | 1.54 | 1.46 |
Does AIA's cash cover its dividend?
Underlying free surplus generation, or UFSG, measures capital generated above specified requirements. In 2025, US$6,765 million became US$4,451 million after new-business funding, expenses and finance costs. Investment movements reduced it further, while dividends and repurchases used US$4,706 million.
Cash is equally easy to misunderstand. Free surplus is capital released after AIA has met insurance requirements. Net free surplus generation goes further by allowing for the capital needed to write new business and other deductions. AIA targets returning 75% of annual net FSG through dividends and buybacks. The rest helps absorb shocks and finance tomorrow’s policies.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net income | 6,234 | 6,836 | 3,764 | 3,331 | |
| Dividends paid on ordinary shares in the year | 2,427 | 2,328 | 2,293 | 2,259 | 2,147 |
| Shares bought back | 2,279 | 4,150 | 3,637 | 3,570 | 0 |
| Kept to grow and to build capital (calculated) | 1,528 | 358 | -2,166 | -2,498 | |
| Paid out with buybacks, share of profit attributable to ordinary shareholders (calculated) | 75.5% | 94.8% | 157.5% | 175.0% |
What could change AIA's dividend?
The base case would remain credible if operating profit per share follows management’s trajectory through 2027 and then moderates. Positive but uneven VONB growth, stable margins and continuing returns under the 75% capital policy would support it.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Book value | 43,360 (41,560 / 43,560) | 46,460 (44,060 / 47,360) | 50,060 (47,760 / 52,160) |
| Shares (millions) | 10,198 (10,262 / 10,096) | 10,068 (10,188 / 9,847) | 9,950 (10,121 / 9,609) |
| Dividends per share | 0.29 (0.24 / 0.30) | 0.31 (0.24 / 0.33) | 0.34 (0.25 / 0.37) |
| Price to book value | 2.20 (1.70 / 2.50) | 2.20 (1.50 / 2.70) | 2.20 (1.30 / 2.90) |
What is AIA's dividend yield against its share price?
A cash illustration makes the demand clearer. AIA generated US$4.451 billion of net FSG in 2025. Returning 75% would produce a shareholder distribution equivalent to about 3.5% of today’s market value. At a 10% required return, a simple perpetual-growth model needs roughly 6.5% annual growth. At a 12% required return, it needs roughly 8.5%. These are scenarios, not a uniquely implied forecast.