CK Asset stock forecast
CK Asset’s weighted share price is HK$44.62 in October 2027 and HK$48.66 in October 2029. It hinges on CK Asset turning asset backing and disposal proceeds into repeatable earnings.
Where could CK Asset’s shares go?
The weighted price is HK$44.62 in October 2027. That implies a 4% return. It is HK$48.66 in October 2029. That implies a 21% return. The bear case probability is 30%. The base case probability is 55%. The bull case probability is 15%.
The probability-weighted share price is HK$44.62 in October 2027, for a 4% return from today’s HK$44.50 including dividends. It reaches HK$46.24 in October 2028, for a 12% return. By October 2029, the weighted price is HK$48.66, for a 21% return. The three-year range runs from HK$22.84 in the bear case to HK$78.11 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 34.28 (-19 %) | 28.56 (-28 %) | 22.84 (-38 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 46.88 (+9 %) | 50.14 (+21 %) | 54.71 (+35 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 57.02 (+32 %) | 67.30 (+60 %) | 78.11 (+89 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 44.62 (+4 %) | 46.24 (+12 %) | 48.66 (+21 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is an average based on the chances of each case, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right or wrong for CK Asset?
Second-half 2026 launches of Victoria Blossom in Kai Tak and further units at The Greenwich Phase 2 in Beijing will test whether sales replenish profit as well as cash. FY2026 and following annual results will show how scheduled sales convert, how the loss of the UK businesses affects earnings, and where disposal cash goes. Stronger project margins, better office leasing, productive reinvestment or shareholder returns support the bull case; weak margins, impairments or lower returns on retained cash support the bear case. Remember: the discount earns its keep only when asset backing becomes repeatable earnings.
How much cash does CK Asset really make?
Operating cash flow was HK$18,670 million in 2025. A HK$9,049 million release from properties for sale supplied a large part of that strength. This is normal development timing: land and construction absorb cash for years, then handovers release inventory and customer money. It does not prove that the next projects will earn the same return.
What does an investor pay for CK Asset?
At HK$44.50, CK Asset has an equity market value of HK$155,740.14 million. Its 0.4x price-to-book ratio means investors pay roughly forty cents for each dollar of accounting equity. Its 11.4x forward P/E means the price equals 11.4 times forecast profit, while the 4.0% dividend yield describes the current cash distribution, not a promised return.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 44.50 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 155,740.14 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 0.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 11.4x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.0% |