CKI stock forecast
CKI's weighted scenario is HK$64.66 in October 2029, a 7% gain including dividends. It hinges on replacing sold earnings with stronger recurring cash from reinvestment.
Where could CKI's shares be by October 2029?
CKI points to a slow recovery, with upside depending on replacing sold earnings with recurring cash from successful reinvestment. Management’s promises centre on Northumbrian Water’s capital programme and its emissions-reduction target. Its acquisition policy will remain disciplined, with no “must-win” approach. The weighted case is HK$59.60 in October 2027, an 8% loss including dividends, and HK$64.66 in October 2029, a 7% gain including dividends. The forecast assigns 25% probability to the bear case, 60% to base and 15% to bull. The outcome turns on Rozenburg’s electricity generation resuming in the second half of 2026, Northumbrian Water’s investment programme through March 2030, and gas-network programmes ending in 2028. Restored Rozenburg output must show recovery beyond waste processing. CKI must turn reinvestment into replacement earnings and stronger recurring distributions. The sale created cash, but reinvestment must create the next earnings stream.
The weighted price is HK$59.60 in October 2027, an 8% total loss from today’s HK$67.95. It rises to HK$62.00 in October 2028, still a 1% loss. By October 2029 it reaches HK$64.66, a 7% total gain.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25% | 51.89 (-20%) | 52.43 (-15%) | 53.51 (-10%) |
| Base | 60% | 60.90 (-6%) | 63.44 (+1%) | 66.07 (+9%) |
| Bull | 15% | 67.25 (+3%) | 72.17 (+15%) | 77.58 (+27%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 59.60 (-8%) | 62.00 (-1%) | 64.66 (+7%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a separate prediction.
How much cash does CKI really make?
Free cash flow needs the same care. Dividends from investments appear in investing cash flow, while network spending inside those investments does not appear in CKI’s consolidated capital expenditure. Distributions, maintenance spending, committed investment and new equity funding must be read together.
Parent cash dividend cover compares cash received with shareholder distributions. Against HK$6,526 million of shareholder dividends paid during 2025, FFO provided approximately 1.30 times cover. Including HK$438 million paid to perpetual-security holders reduces that to about 1.22 times. This is a useful group-level test, but it comes before new investment funding and does not prove that every distribution is recurring.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funds from Operations | 8,515 | 7,416 | 8,645 | 7,557 | 8,404 |
| Net debt to net total capital ratio | 8.9% | 7.8% | 7.7% | 7.3% | 14.7% |
What this means. Funds from Operations includes dividends from companies CKI invests in, not just cash generated by CKI's own businesses.
What does an investor pay for CKI today?
A price-to-earnings ratio, or P/E, tells an investor how much the market pays for one dollar of expected annual profit. Its inverse is the earnings yield, but that profit is not automatically cash in the shareholder’s pocket: CKI can distribute it, reinvest it or retain it. The dividend yield is lower because dividends represent only the part of profit sent to shareholders.
| Today (Oct 19, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 67.95 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 171,208 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 19.3x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.8% |
What this means. The share price is from October 16, not October 19, so it may not be the price you could pay on the valuation date.