Midea Group stock forecast
Midea Group's weighted forecast is HK$98.90 by October 2029, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 27%, 53% and 20%. It hinges on resilient appliance earnings, overseas expansion and better industrial returns.
Where could Midea Group's shares be by 2029?
The weighted forecast is HK$86.42 in October 2027, a 3% loss including dividends, and HK$98.90 in October 2029, a 24% gain including dividends. The bear, base and bull cases carry 27%, 53% and 20% probabilities.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 68.04 (-23 %) | 60.91 (-26 %) | 57.20 (-25 %) |
| Base | 53 % | 88.14 (-1 %) | 94.51 (+12 %) | 101.25 (+27 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 106.71 (+19 %) | 124.76 (+46 %) | 148.99 (+81 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 86.42 (-3 %) | 91.49 (+9 %) | 98.90 (+24 %) |
What has to go right for Midea Group, and what could go wrong?
At HK$94.55, Midea can reach a weighted HK$98.90 by October 2029, but that outcome hinges on resilient appliance earnings, overseas expansion and better industrial returns. Management expects mid-to-high single-digit revenue growth in 2026 with a stable net margin. It also expects overseas own-brand sales to accelerate and ToB sales to outgrow ToC sales; ToB means sales to businesses and ToC means sales to individual consumers.
How much cash does Midea Group really make?
Free cash flow is what remains after operating cash pays for investment and financing-related outflows. Capital spending reached RMB11,141.889 million in 2025, and free cash flow fell 22.2%. Deducting stock compensation produces “real” free cash flow, because issuing shares to employees costs existing owners even when it does not immediately use cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 53,345.93 | 60,511.572 | 57,902.611 | 34,657.828 | 35,448.953 |
| − Capital spending | 11,141.889 | 7,839.636 | 6,314.051 | 7,352.115 | 6,825.357 |
| = Free cash flow | 38,573.22 | 49,597.65 | 47,913.054 | 24,323.98 | 25,907.392 |
| − Stock pay | 881.794 | 1,193.484 | 1,261.836 | 1,028.95 | 1,578.169 |
| = Real free cash flow | 37,691.426 | 48,404.166 | 46,651.218 | 23,295.03 | 24,329.223 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 8.2% | 11.8% | 12.5% | 6.7% | 7.1% |
What this means. Stock pay uses no cash today, but it gives employees part of the company, so we subtract its value to show what is truly left for shareholders.
What does an investor pay for Midea Group today?
At HK$94.55, a trailing P/E of 13.8 means investors pay HK$13.80 for each HK$1 of recent annual profit. The forward P/E of 12.1 uses an estimate for the next twelve months, so it assumes earnings will rise. At the same price, the two multiples imply earnings per share of about HK$6.85 and HK$7.81, or roughly 14% growth. The stock therefore depends on forecast profit arriving.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 94.55 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 13.8x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.1x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.4% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.3% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 5.3% |
What this means. The enterprise value is lower than the market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.