CK Hutchison stock forecast
The weighted price is HK$74.55 in October 2029, and the return reaches 24%. It hinges on stronger retail and ports.
Where could CK Hutchison’s shares be by October 2029?
For October 2027, the weighted price is HK$67.95. Including dividends, the return is 7%. For October 2028, the weighted price is HK$71.18. The return reaches 15%. For October 2029, the weighted price is HK$74.55. The return reaches 24%.
By October 2029, the scenarios span HK$45.05 to HK$111.97. Today’s price is HK$65.90. The bear case receives 25%; the base case receives 60%; the bull case receives 15%. These weights favor measured progress over either a major impairment or a rapid rerating.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 50.17 (-21 %) | 47.64 (-21 %) | 45.05 (-22 %) |
| Base | 60 % | 70.45 (+11 %) | 73.93 (+20 %) | 77.48 (+29 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 87.59 (+37 %) | 99.44 (+59 %) | 111.97 (+83 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 67.95 (+7 %) | 71.18 (+15 %) | 74.55 (+24 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for CK Hutchison?
The bear case gives NAV of HK$565,146 million in the first year and only HK$5,000 million of annual net accretion thereafter. It assumes HK$14,000 million of earnings, HK$9,000 million of dividends and a one-time HK$20,000 million impairment, reflecting Panama and the precedent of the HK$3,740 million Vietnam impairment. The bull case reaches HK$605,379 million initially and HK$645,779 million by the final date. It assumes HK$28,700 million of recurring earnings, supported by stronger retail and ports, without assigning value to a speculative Panama recovery.
How much cash does CK Hutchison really make?
Cash flow needs the same separation. First-half free cash flow was HK$58,345 million, including HK$52,677 million from infrastructure disposals. Management’s underlying free-cash-flow measure was HK$7,705 million. A sale receipt is not repeatable operating cash, and a subsidiary may need its cash for debt, equipment or spectrum before paying the parent.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments (calculated) | 143,808 | 121,337 | 127,373 | 138,125 | 153,174 |
| Total assets | 1,155,673 | 1,112,542 | 1,158,903 | 1,148,437 | 1,213,526 |
| Total debt (calculated) | 267,786 | 259,863 | 275,167 | 286,893 | 326,558 |
What this means. The company's total debt does not include lease payments or certain shareholder funding, so it may owe more than this number suggests.
What does an investor pay for CK Hutchison today?
Today’s price requires durable earnings and useful deployment of sale proceeds, but not spectacular growth. The share price is HK$65.90. Dividing it by the forward P/E of 10.3x implies about HK$6.40 of next-twelve-month earnings per share, or roughly HK$24,505 million across the company.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 65.90 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 252,399.93 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 0.4x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 10.3x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.5% |
What this means. A price to book ratio of 0.4 means the shares cost less than half of the value of what the company owns after debts.