Wheaton stock forecast
Wheaton's probability-weighted price is CAD 192.55 in October 2027, CAD 202.79 in October 2028, and CAD 223.19 in October 2029. Wheaton's outcome hinges on reliable Antamina shipments, timely project ramps and falling debt before April 2028.
Where could Wheaton's shares go in the forecast?
The probability-weighted price is CAD 192.55 in October 2027, CAD 202.79 in October 2028, and CAD 223.19 in October 2029. Including dividends, those outcomes represent approximately 0%, 6% and 17% from today’s CAD 194.06. By October 2029, the bear case reaches CAD 103.31 while the bull case reaches CAD 423.60.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 108.44 (-44 %) | 88.70 (-53 %) | 103.31 (-45 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 201.91 (+5 %) | 210.45 (+10 %) | 218.56 (+15 %) |
| Bull | 18 % | 295.34 (+53 %) | 357.30 (+85 %) | 423.60 (+120 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 192.55 (-0 %) | 202.79 (+6 %) | 223.19 (+17 %) |
What this means. The weighted value is an average based on the chances of each case, not a promise that the shares will reach that price.
What has to go right or wrong for Wheaton?
The November 6, 2026 third-quarter call should test whether Salobo and Peñasquito improve, Antamina ships a full quarter and debt begins to fall. Koné’s hard-rock circuit is scheduled for Q2 2027. Spring Valley targets first gold in the first half of 2028, close to the April 2028 term-loan maturity. Reliable Antamina shipments and timely project ramps through 2027–2028 support the bull case; delays or weaker prices slow debt repayment. The investment turns on reliable Antamina shipments, on-time project ramps and falling debt before April 2028.
How much cash does Wheaton really make?
Capital spending of US$1,341,369 thousand in 2025 left free cash flow of US$563,107 thousand after lease payments. After deducting stock compensation as an economic cost, real free cash flow was US$556,632 thousand. The five-year record is lumpy because stream purchases and milestone payments arrive irregularly.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,904,981 | 1,027,581 | 750,809 | 743,424 | 845,145 |
| − Capital spending | 1,341,369 | 655,215 | 671,361 | 153,429 | 525,962 |
| − Lease payments | 505 | 594 | 691 | 800 | 780 |
| = Free cash flow | 563,107 | 371,772 | 78,757 | 589,195 | 318,403 |
| − Stock pay | 6,475 | 6,703 | 6,438 | 5,846 | 5,262 |
| = Real free cash flow | 556,632 | 365,069 | 72,319 | 583,349 | 313,141 |
What this means. The capital spending here is not mainly money for equipment; it is money used to buy mineral streaming and royalty rights, so the free cash flow is tailored to this company's business.
What does an investor pay for Wheaton today?
EV/EBITDA compares enterprise value with earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and depletion. Wheaton’s reported multiple is 22.98x, but adding depletion back does not make the original purchase free. Operating cash can also be committed to new streams: existing contracts generated US$650 million of operating cash flow in the second quarter of 2026, while upfront stream payments reached US$4.5 billion. That helps explain a thin free-cash-flow yield and a dividend yield that leaves the investment case dependent mainly on future growth.
| Today (Oct 13, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 194.06 |
| Market value (calculated) | 88,134,283 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 90,796,054 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 30.2x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 0.9% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.6% |
What this means. The enterprise value leaves out lease liabilities, so it may understate what the whole business would cost because leases are obligations too.