Vertiv stock forecast
Vertiv's weighted forecast reaches $250.95 in October 2029, a 21% return including dividends. It hinges on converting booked backlog into delivered projects, earnings and durable cash.
Where could Vertiv's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast sees Vertiv’s weighted value dipping before recovering. The probability-weighted price is $201.00 in October 2027, a 3% loss including dividends. It reaches $229.09 in October 2028, an 11% return. By October 2029, it reaches $250.95, a 21% return.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 27 % | 101.95 (-51 %) | 102.86 (-50 %) | 104.49 (-49 %) |
| Base | 54 % | 214.97 (+4 %) | 248.75 (+20 %) | 265.78 (+29 %) |
| Bull | 19 % | 302.03 (+46 %) | 352.58 (+70 %) | 416.94 (+102 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 201.00 (-3 %) | 229.09 (+11 %) | 250.95 (+21 %) |
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Vertiv?
The bear path starts with $16,300 million of revenue at a 13.5% margin. It reaches $19,000 million at only 14.5% in the final window because project delays, capacity costs and customer capex constraints slow conversion. The bull path reaches $19,200 million at a 19.0% margin initially, then $29,000 million at 20.0%, requiring faster deliveries and successful capacity expansion. Vertiv’s margin recovery and 2025 adjusted EPS beat support the base, but the 2021–22 downturn shows that execution is not cycle-proof.
How much cash does Vertiv really make?
Capital requirements are rising too. Vertiv expects 2026 capital spending of $550–570 million, well above the prior year, as it expands capacity. Stock compensation is another ownership cost: deducting it from free cash flow does not represent a second cash payment, but recognizes dilution borne by shareholders. The cash question is therefore not simply how much arrived, but how much remains after fulfilling projects and funding the next stage of growth.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 2,113.8 | 1,319.3 | 900.5 | -152.8 | 210.9 |
| − Capital spending | 226.4 | 184.1 | 134.6 | 111.0 | 84.6 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,887.4 | 1,135.2 | 765.9 | -263.8 | 126.3 |
| − Stock pay | 45.9 | 34.6 | 25.0 | 24.7 | 23.2 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,841.5 | 1,100.6 | 740.9 | -288.5 | 103.1 |
What does an investor pay for Vertiv today?
EBITDA adds depreciation and amortization back to operating profit; it is a rough operating measure, not cash. Vertiv’s calculated operating EBITDA produces an enterprise value of about 31.1x. Free cash flow is more demanding because it subtracts capital investment. Its 2.4% yield, alongside a separately calculated 2.3% real free-cash-flow yield and a 0.1% dividend yield, leaves little support if growth disappoints. The 16.8x price-to-book ratio is also weak evidence because acquisitions create goodwill and amortizable customer relationships whose value depends on future profit.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 207.35 |
| Market value (calculated) | 79,827.3 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 79,656.5 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 46.9x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 2.4% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.1% |
What this means. The whole-business value is slightly lower than the stock-market value because the company has more cash and short-term investments than debt.