Constellation Brands dividend
Constellation Brands pays $4.12 per share at the declared rate, while the base case forecasts dividends rising from $4.14 to $4.22 per share. Management expects $1,600–$1,700 million of free cash flow against a planned $700 million dividend.
How much does Constellation Brands pay over time?
Dividends rise modestly in the base case from $4.14 to $4.22 per share. The bear freezes them at $4.12, matching the declared quarterly rate, while the bull reaches $4.32 through larger increases. The base reflects a five-year record of annual increases and free-cash-flow guidance of $1,600–$1,700 million against a planned $700 million dividend.
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| − Dividends paid, per share | 4.08 | 4.03 | 3.55 | 3.17 | 3.01 |
| = FCF not paid out, per share | 0.52 | 0.14 | 3.02 | ||
| = Paid out more than FCF, per share | 3.35 | 1.77 |
What this means. The company's own free cash flow per share is higher because it does not subtract shares given to employees as pay; we subtract them because they reduce each existing shareholder's share of the company.
Does Constellation Brands cover its dividend with free cash flow?
Free cash flow is operating cash left after spending on long-lived assets such as breweries and equipment. Because construction is already deducted, it must not be counted again when judging dividends or buybacks. Across the five years through February 2026, dividends and repurchases slightly exceeded the entire free-cash-flow pool.
Recent capital allocation has been more restrained. Debt fell as repayments exceeded new borrowing, helped by asset sales, but shareholder distributions still consumed most available cash. Buybacks can improve each remaining share’s claim on earnings, yet only if Constellation pays less than the shares are worth.
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2025 | Feb 2024 | Feb 2023 | Feb 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow | 1,794.0 | 1,938.1 | 1,510.9 | 1,721.5 | 1,678.6 |
| − Dividends paid | 715.7 | 731.8 | 653.8 | 587.7 | 573.0 |
| − Share buybacks | 924.1 | 1,123.8 | 249.7 | 1,700.2 | 1,390.5 |
| = Free cash flow not paid out | 91.7 | 25.0 | 554.8 | ||
| = Paid out more than the free cash flow | 621.7 | 337.4 | |||
| Paid to shareholders | 1,639.8 | 1,855.6 | 903.5 | 2,287.9 | 1,963.5 |
What this means. In 2022 and 2023, the company paid shareholders more cash than it generated, so it had to use savings or borrow money to cover the difference.
What could change Constellation Brands’ dividend?
Management guides fiscal 2027 enterprise organic sales growth of −1% to +1%, including Beer, and targets a 37%–38% Beer operating margin. It targets a 5%–6% Wine and Spirits margin. Management expects $1,600–$1,700 million of free cash flow in fiscal 2027, with $800 million of capital spending. The dividend is $700 million.
| October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | 2,034 (1,835 / 2,184) | 2,086 (1,625 / 2,368) | 2,151 (1,546 / 2,550) |
| Shares (millions) | 163 (165 / 161) | 158 (162 / 154) | 153 (159 / 147) |
| Dividends per share | 4.14 (4.12 / 4.16) | 4.18 (4.12 / 4.24) | 4.22 (4.12 / 4.32) |
| Price to earnings | 12.00 (10.00 / 14.00) | 12.50 (9.00 / 15.00) | 13.00 (8.00 / 16.00) |
What is Constellation Brands’ dividend yield today?
The range is wide because execution matters. October 2029 spans $77.56 in the bear case to $277.83 in the bull case, against today’s $127.43. The base case carries the greatest probability because management expects roughly flat organic sales and substantial free cash flow, but recent negative depletions prevent a high-confidence recovery.