Simon stock forecast
Simon’s weighted case points to $245.03 in October 2027 and reaches $271.28 by October 2029. It hinges on turning destination strength into durable per-share earnings without letting debt consume the return.
Where could Simon’s shares go?
The bear case has a 23% probability. The base case has a 57% probability; the bull case has a 20% probability.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 23 % | 190.72 (-3 %) | 177.55 (-5 %) | 170.10 (-5 %) |
| Base | 57 % | 253.02 (+28 %) | 265.23 (+38 %) | 278.04 (+49 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 284.72 (+43 %) | 324.31 (+67 %) | 368.37 (+94 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 245.03 (+24 %) | 256.88 (+34 %) | 271.28 (+46 %) |
What has to go right or wrong for Simon?
The starting point is management’s $13.25 per-share 2026 guidance midpoint applied to 380.361 million diluted shares and units. First-half Real Estate FFO per share was $6.46, up 7.5% year over year, while occupancy was 96.0% and base rent per square foot rose 6.3%. The base assumes 4.5% annual per-share growth. The bear assumes declines of 2% and 3%, while the bull assumes 7% growth. Debt maturities of $5.044 billion in 2027 and $3.069 billion in 2028 explain the downside.
How much cash does Simon really make?
FAD, or funds available for distribution, moves closer to cash by showing selected recurring property needs. In the first half of 2026, Simon deducted $150.7 million of tenant allowances and $107.9 million of operational capital expenditures. Tenant allowances help attract or retain tenants, while operational capital keeps properties functioning and competitive.
The bridge left FAD of $2.158 billion, but it also added back $75.3 million of stock compensation. That is not the same as cash being free of cost: if equity compensation increases the share count, existing holders bear dilution.
What does an investor pay for Simon’s earnings and cash?
Adjusted funds from operations, or AFFO, goes further by subtracting recurring costs such as tenant improvements, leasing expenses, and capital work. Neither measure is cash in the bank, and companies calculate AFFO differently. The current table shows the share price, market value, operating multiples, dividend, and share count.
| Today (Oct 17, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 205.44 |
| Market value (calculated) | 66,472,066.762 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 16.37x |
| Price to Real Estate FFO (calculated) | 15.60x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 4.4% |
What this means. The market value is shown in thousands of US dollars, while the share count is shown both as individual shares and millions, so the numbers use different scales.