Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust stock forecast
Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust's weighted forecast is 2,076.29 GBp in October 2029, a +35% return including dividends. It hinges on the market's confidence in portfolio growth, private marks and NAV.
Where could Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust's shares be by October 2029?
The weighted forecast is 1,742.01 GBp in October 2027, a +13% return, and 2,076.29 GBp in October 2029, a +35% return. Probabilities are 28% bear, 52% base and 20% bull. The October 2029 range is 1,246.50 to 2,807.91 GBp.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 28 % | 1429.56 (-7 %) | 1336.81 (-13 %) | 1246.50 (-19 %) |
| Base | 52 % | 1801.11 (+17 %) | 2019.19 (+31 %) | 2241.70 (+46 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 2025.77 (+31 %) | 2414.89 (+57 %) | 2807.91 (+83 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 1742.01 (+13 %) | 1907.26 (+24 %) | 2076.29 (+35 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull cases, not a guaranteed share price.
What has to go right, and what could go wrong for Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust?
Portfolio-company growth, margins, customer retention and cash generation decide the case. Private exits and SpaceX sales test carrying values; SpaceX’s weight had fallen to just over 15% at the September Q&A. Debt facilities of US$100 million, US$170 million and US$120 million mature in December 2026, January 2027 and March 2027.
How much cash does Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust really make?
SMT’s liquidity matters more than a conventional free-cash-flow ratio. Paper gains increase accounting profit, but cash appears only when investments are sold or income is received. In the year to March 2026, investment disposals supplied roughly £2.377 billion, while operating activities consumed £68.721 million.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash and short-term investments (calculated) | 11,028 | 9,013 | 123,762 | 184,945 | 229,962 |
| Total assets | 15,464,442 | 13,744,255 | 14,508,672 | 13,346,574 | 16,912,573 |
| Total debt (calculated) | 1,606,198 | 1,623,867 | 1,644,456 | 1,823,294 | 2,131,588 |
What this means. The reported total assets are not simply everything the trust owns because they subtract some amounts it owes that are not borrowings.
What do investors pay for Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust's earnings and cash?
A recent factsheet reported a 7.9% discount, while an NAV announcement for 14 October gave a NAV of 1,769.91p. Comparing that NAV with the later market price suggests a discount of about 12.7%, but it is not a verified discount for the same date. Price-to-book is a separate accounting comparison, so it cannot by itself establish a current NAV premium.
P/E is less useful here because investment-trust earnings include gains and losses on investments. In 2026, SMT reported only 2.28p of revenue return but 273.03p of capital return. A rising portfolio can therefore make P/E look unusually low without making the trust a cheap operating business.
| Today (Oct 16, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 1,545.00 |
| Market value (every class) (calculated) | 1,604,701.67061 |
| Price to book (calculated) | 1.2x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 0.3% |
What this means. The price to book ratio uses the last formally reported net asset value from March 2026, not the newer monthly estimate, so it may not reflect what the company owns today.