Shell stock forecast
Shell's weighted scenario reaches 5,520.93 GBp by October 2029. It hinges on smooth ARC execution.
Where could Shell's shares be by 2029?
The forecast is wide. The October 2029 bear case is 2,684.49 GBp, a -21% total return. The bull case is 8,988.18 GBp, a +148% total return. The weighted outcome is 5,520.93 GBp.
The bear case requires weaker oil and gas prices, expanding LNG supply, fading refining margins and costly ARC integration. EBITDA falls, cash conversion weakens and net debt rises, so buybacks slow and investors apply a lower multiple. The price reaches 3,211.01 GBp in October 2027 and 2,684.49 GBp in October 2029. Its 25% probability reflects Shell's demonstrated commodity exposure, although ARC production and flexible buybacks limit the likelihood of the full debt build.
The bull case requires smooth ARC execution, strong LNG demand, healthy refining margins and disciplined spending. Higher EBITDA reduces debt while stronger cash flow supports large buybacks and a higher multiple. The price reaches 6,355.43 GBp in 2027 and 8,988.18 GBp in 2029. Its 20% probability reflects the number of conditions that must succeed together, while LNG Canada Phase 2 contributes no output during the forecast period.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 25 % | 3211.01 (-12 %) | 2457.68 (-30 %) | 2684.49 (-21 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 4832.11 (+31 %) | 5132.40 (+42 %) | 5549.39 (+57 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 6355.43 (+71 %) | 7750.88 (+112 %) | 8988.18 (+148 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 4731.50 (+28 %) | 4987.42 (+38 %) | 5520.93 (+56 %) |
How much cash does Shell really make?
The next claims are more concrete. Capital spending maintains and develops assets; lease payments finance the use of ships, facilities and offices; interest services debt. Share awards do not require the same immediate cash as wages, but they transfer value through dilution or offsetting buybacks. Shell’s own free-cash-flow measure also includes investing movements such as disposal proceeds, so it answers a broader question than cash left after these claims.
| Year to Dec 2025 | Year to Dec 2024 | Year to Dec 2023 | Year to Dec 2022 | Year to Dec 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Free cash flow (calculated) | 14,543 | 25,366 | 21,016 | 37,569 | 17,224 |
| Share-based payments | 774 | 732 | 700 | 807 | 539 |
| Real free cash flow (after share-based payments) (calculated) | 13,769 | 24,634 | 20,316 | 36,762 | 16,685 |
| Free cash flow left for shareholders (calculated) | 13,622 | 24,339 | 19,552 | 36,556 | 16,337 |
What does an investor pay for Shell today?
At 3780.50p, one share costs £37.805. Shell’s market value is £216,604 million: the value placed on shareholders’ claim. Enterprise value, which includes debt-like obligations and subtracts cash, is £225,747 million. It estimates the value of the operating business with its financing attached. Leases matter here because Shell reported net debt of $41.8 billion including leases, versus $12.1 billion excluding them. The earnings measure must treat those lease costs consistently.
| Today (Oct 9, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 3780.50 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 11.0x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 9.8x |
| EV / revenue, last 12 months (calculated) | 1.0x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 9.1% |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 3.1% |