Standard Life stock forecast
MyStockButler's October 2026 analysis: Standard Life's weighted forecast is 509.84 GBp in October 2029. It hinges on whether cash and book value recover enough to offset execution, capital and dilution risks.
Where could Standard Life's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast’s weighted price is 335.12 GBp in October 2027, a 56% loss including dividends. It rises to 419.82 GBp in October 2028, still a 40% loss. In October 2029 it reaches 509.84 GBp, a 23% loss.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30% | 11.49 (-93%) | 52.64 (-82%) | 77.43 (-73%) |
| Base | 50% | 409.51 (-48%) | 479.30 (-33%) | 553.80 (-18%) |
| Bull | 20% | 634.63 (-22%) | 821.92 (+6%) | 1048.58 (+39%) |
| Weighted | 100% | 335.12 (-56%) | 419.82 (-40%) | 509.84 (-23%) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the bear, base, and bull outcomes, not a separate forecast.
What has to go right or wrong for Standard Life?
The bear case would gain weight if the planned PRT partnership, from its H1 2027 launch, produces weak annuity returns, or if longevity and downgrade stresses reduce solvency headroom. Aegon costs arriving before savings would also weaken earnings and buyback capacity.
The base case would strengthen if OCG continues its mid-single-digit growth path, the £1,100m operating-profit target is delivered and Aegon’s recurring £110m synergies build gradually. The bull case would gain weight if savings arrive ahead of schedule, workplace and retail assets show stronger retention, and PRT generates profitable premiums without capital strain.
How much cash does Standard Life really make?
Operating Cash Generation combines surplus emergence with specified recurring management actions. In 2025, surplus emergence contributed £914 million. Recurring management actions added £560 million. These included annuity portfolio optimisation, fund simplification and capital improvements. The actions can create value, but they depend on suitable assets, transactions and regulatory treatment.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Generation | 1,474 | 1,403 | 1,146 | ||
| Total cash generation | 1,711 | 1,779 | 2,024 | 1,504 | 1,717 |
| New business CSM | 150 | 248 | 348 | ||
| Cumulative annual run-rate cost savings delivered | 180 | 63 |
What this means. Operating cash generation has no figures for 2021 and 2022 because the insurer only started reporting it under this definition in 2024.
What does an investor pay for Standard Life today?
The current valuation implies annual core earnings of about 62.9p per share and forward earnings of about 70.4p. The difference is roughly 12%, but it represents growth only if both earnings definitions and share-count bases match.
| Today (Oct 20, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 893.5 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | not meaningful |
| P/E on core earnings, last 12 months (calculated) | 14.2x |
| P/E, next 12 months (calculated) | 12.7x |
| Price to book (calculated) | not meaningful |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 6.2% |
What this means. The usual price-to-earnings ratio is not meaningful because the company reported a loss over the last year, so dividing the share price by negative earnings gives a misleading result.