Saputo stock forecast
Saputo's weighted forecast is C$36.33 in October 2027 and C$40.54 in October 2029. It hinges on sustained earnings and cash conversion.
Where could Saputo's shares go?
The weighted forecast is C$36.33 in October 2027. That implies a −7% return. By October 2029, it reaches C$40.54. That implies an +8% return. The bear case has a 29% probability. The base and bull cases have 51% and 20%, respectively. October 2029 cases range from C$28.25 in the bear case to C$61.26 in the bull case.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 29 % | 27.09 (-30 %) | 25.09 (-33 %) | 28.25 (-23 %) |
| Base | 51 % | 37.41 (-4 %) | 37.09 (-3 %) | 39.40 (+5 %) |
| Bull | 20 % | 46.97 (+20 %) | 53.22 (+37 %) | 61.26 (+60 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 36.33 (-7 %) | 36.84 (-4 %) | 40.54 (+8 %) |
What has to go right for Saputo, and what could go wrong?
The numbers describe a gradual recovery, but not a straight line. Normal operating profit is C$970m in October 2027 and C$940m in October 2028. It returns to C$970m in October 2029. The base build uses C$17,700m of revenue at approximately a 5.5% margin in the first period, then C$16,500m after the U.K. exit. It ends at C$16,700m and a 5.8% margin. The recovery is supported by FY2026’s C$1,059m operating income and the latest quarter’s C$278m. The bear row falls to C$820m and C$790m before reaching C$850m. The bull row reaches C$1,110m and C$1,140m before C$1,190m, requiring stronger protein demand, whey availability and plant utilization.
How much cash does Saputo really make?
Stock compensation is an economic cost even when it is not paid immediately in cash. Receivables sales also brought cash forward: using March 2026 balances, 370 had been sold under purchase agreements. That balance is financing support, not a recurring annual cash benefit.
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | |
|---|---|---|
| Cash from operations | 1,508 | 1,194 |
| − Capital spending | 330 | 379 |
| = Free cash flow | 1,120 | 731 |
| − Stock pay | 100 | 25 |
| = Real free cash flow | 1,020 | 706 |
| Real free cash flow, % of revenue | 5.8% | 4.0% |
What this means. Real free cash flow is lower because it subtracts shares given to employees as pay: no cash leaves today, but existing shareholders own a smaller share of the company.
What does an investor pay for Saputo today?
Free cash flow yield looks more generous than the earnings multiple, but cash can move sharply as Saputo buys milk, carries inventory, waits for customers to pay, or receives more time from suppliers. In FY2026, lower working-capital usage helped operating cash flow. In the first quarter of FY2027, higher usage pulled cash flow down despite higher earnings. Several years of continuing-business cash flow therefore matter more than one attractive yield.
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 39.99 |
| Market value (calculated) | 15,873.69 |
| Enterprise value (calculated) | 17,855.69 |
| P/E, last 12 months (calculated) | 22.98x |
| Free cash flow yield (calculated) | 7.1% |
| Real free cash flow yield (calculated) | 6.4% |
What this means. The next twelve months price-to-earnings number uses analysts’ expected profit, so it may be wrong.