Realty Income stock forecast
Realty Income's weighted case is $60.87 in October 2029, with bear, base and bull probabilities of 30%, 55% and 15%. Realty Income's outcome hinges on per-share cash growth after funding costs and dilution.
Where could Realty Income's shares be by October 2029?
The forecast points to modest total returns, with the base case producing the most likely path. The weighted price is $57.73 in October 2027, a 9% return including dividends. It rises to $59.18 in October 2028, a 17% return. By October 2029, it reaches $60.87, a 27% return.
The final-date outcomes are much wider: the bear case reaches $48.29, while the bull case reaches $81.52. Today’s reference price is $56.08. The bear, base and bull probabilities are 30%, 55% and 15%.
| Case | Probability | October 2027 | October 2028 | October 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear | 30 % | 54.05 (+2 %) | 51.11 (+3 %) | 48.29 (+4 %) |
| Base | 55 % | 58.11 (+10 %) | 60.06 (+19 %) | 62.09 (+29 %) |
| Bull | 15 % | 63.68 (+20 %) | 72.14 (+41 %) | 81.52 (+64 %) |
| Weighted | 100 % | 57.73 (+9 %) | 59.18 (+17 %) | 60.87 (+27 %) |
What this means. The weighted row is the probability-based average of the three cases, not a promise that the shares will be worth that amount.
What has to go right—and what could go wrong for Realty Income?
The base case applies 6% annual total AFFO growth, reaching $4,409 million, $4,674 million and $4,954 million. It assumes guidance-level execution, continued investment and partner capital. The bear case uses 2% growth because debt costs, dilution and weaker new-client reletting could absorb most acquisition growth. The bull case uses 9% because cheaper funding, attractive acquisition spreads and partner-funded expansion could accelerate results. AFFO rose every year from 2021 through 2025, but per-share growth was slower when issuance was heavy.
How much cash does Realty Income really make?
AFFO estimates recurring earnings capacity after company-defined adjustments to FFO. Those adjustments include items such as straight-line rent, leasing costs, credit losses, and debt-cost amortization. The per-share figure matters because it reflects the share count. The payout table shows a dividend below AFFO, leaving room under Realty Income’s formula.
Property spending also deserves inspection. Realty Income spent $131.8 million on real-estate improvements, including leasing costs, while its AFFO bridge deducted $9.8 million for leasing costs and recurring capital expenditures. Some improvements may support growth, but some property needs recur in practice. The specialist therefore treats the payout as a coverage signal, not as proof that the remainder is free cash.
| 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AFFO (company's measure) | 3,885,898 | 3,621,437 | 2,774,870 | 2,401,359 | 1,488,753 |
| AFFO per share (company's measure) | 4.28 | 4.19 | 4.00 | 3.92 | 3.59 |
| Dividends paid | 2,920,895 | 2,691,719 | 2,111,793 | 1,813,431 | 1,169,026 |
| AFFO payout ratio | 75.2% | 74.6% | 76.3% | 75.7% | 78.9% |
What this means. The adjusted funds from operations payout ratio shows how much of the trust’s adjusted profit measure it pays as dividends, not how much of its total cash or revenue it pays out.
What does an investor pay for Realty Income today?
| Today (Oct 18, 2026) | |
|---|---|
| Share price | 56.08 |
| Market value (calculated) | 53,063.907 |
| Price to FFO (calculated) | 13.1x |
| Price to AFFO (calculated) | 12.8x |
| Dividend yield (calculated) | 5.8% |
| Latest annualized regular dividend per share | 3.26 |
What this means. The market value may look like the whole company's value, but it leaves out operating partnership units held by others.